comments on CPQ:
tscn.com
a fairly superficial and easy observation to make about CPQ
at this point is that it has tended to follow a simple
pattern of three surges, the first two small and last more
sizeable. Then it dumps, makes a little hump (the dump and
hump pattern :)) and repeats the process.
In the current case, beginning in late July at just below
$30, the pattern has changed subtly but notably. in this
case traders have gotten ahead of themselves and, IMO, ruined
the pattern. For starters, there is no little hump before
the process gets started. Also, at the current moment, the
consolidation off the second surge is inadequate. There is
not enough turn over. This pattern is overused, overly
anticipated, and is breaking down.
I believe at this point there will not be a surge into the
mid 40s as would be suggested by the large and tempting
upside down H&S, where the bottom of the head is down
at $24. Instead, this has turned into a simple rising
wedge in which prices should not exceed 38 or so, give or
take a false spike.
This thing will be puttable soon. I even think it is right
now if the target is modest.
BWDIK and all that - love to hear a contrary view.
Shahar |
