I2,
"Do you see the B wave potentially moving up to the area of the recent highs, as in the late 1960's/early 1970's?"
Yes, although the amount of ground the B wave can rally will certainly depend greatly on the economic and political state of the world and the U.S. Just how much will our own economy be damaged by world economic and currency collapses, and how quickly will we be able to recover? If these problems are solved quickly and efficiently, we will see one heck of a B wave rally, possibly eclipsing the 7/98 highs. If not, the B wave rally will be a consolidation at much lower levels than the highs we just made. But no matter what, the B wave rally will come, and will run through its paces and be finished at its appointed time. Once the bottoming pattern is made at the end of the "A" wave, it should give us strong clues at to how high the B wave bounce should take us.
"What should be the structure of the 5 wave pattern following the completion of the C wave of this correction."
I'd be looking for an extended, multiyear 5 wave rally in the line of succession to those that occurred from '42 to '66, and '82 to 7/98. In fact, you could legitimately anticipate that the next supercycle wave higher that begins in 2002 or thereabouts will last about 10.66 years, based on the duration of the prior two stated above. This theory is based on the assumption that '42 to '66 was supercycle 1, corrective 2 lasted from '66 to '82, supercycle 3 stretched from '82 to '98, and the corrective 4 lasts from '98 to 2002 or thereabouts. That would provide for a 10.66 year rally from the termination of C of 4 of this current supercycle correction, based on the ratio of wave 3 to wave 1 being duplicated in 5 to 3 (which it nearly always is when wave 3 is shorter in duration that wave 1, which was the case here).
2002 may prove to be optimistic for the anticipated end of this ABC supercycle correction, especially when compared to the 16 grueling years of corrective wave 2. But if catastrophic events like the Vietnam War, Price and Wage freeezes, the Oil crisis, 20% interest rates, ineffective politicians, etc. etc. can be avoided, then we certainly should expect this correction to be much shorter and less painful than its predecessor. It will be interesting to see the pandoras box of problems/crises that unfold during the next 4 years. Best wishes on successfully maneuvering through them.
Regards,
David |
