Jim:
Russia did not technically devalue, but allowed the ruble to float down by up to 30 % or so. However, from the latest exchange rates I saw (a few hours old now), it only fell by something like 5 %. The RTS (Russian Trading System) seems to be up in $ terms (as often happens after a widely expected devaluation occurs). Hong Kong is closed today, and European markets are remarkably calm.
If they devalue it's no small thing and will effect billions in loans,
it's far worse than if their stock market went zilch.
Noone, should really expect to see much of the loan money back (and never should have; Russia is a financial black hole), but companies like Lukoil should survive and are sort of a safe haven (unless of course they are being renationalized; that is a possibility, but I doubt that the mafia will allow that). A friend of mine made a 40 % profit in two days this way.
The bigger crashes come when no one is prepared for them,
or the market moves below it's last major support,
like I think back in Jan we did a 7600 DOW & about 980 S&P
if we were to take them out we could have a melt down just
as bad as Asia,
I fully agree.
Cheers and good trading,
Phil |
