Burt,
Sorry it has taken so long to get back to you.
You list several attributes which you believe are characteristic of
today's analysts. I disagree with some of them. Today's analysts are
not lazy, or weak in intellilect. It is a very competitive profession which pays a great deal of money. One can not survive if they demonstrate either of these traits. However, you must understand that the demands placed on analysts today are many. As I have writen on this thread before, between the obligation to stream out writen reports, go around the world speaking to institutions to market your research, and the broad number of companies that one must follow to please the investment banking side of their brokerage firm, leaves little room for creative and in depth research. My biggest gripe however, is that it seems to me that few of today's analysts are willing step out from the pack. As Mark B. said most of the analysts today have a "heard instinct mentality".
Few, like Erica Klauer of Solomon Brothers, are willing to take a risk with a viewpoint that is not "in vogue". Unfortunately for Erica though, she has NOT realized that she also has to be right when she does. Although, I don't read her research, I have disagreed with her analysis and conclusions whenever I have seen her interviewed on CNBC. As Paul E. has said, like Elaine Garzerelli, one of these days if she maintains her low earnings estimate, she will be right and Intel will retreat.
As I reflect back on my days as a "sell side" analyst, I think I am a far better analyst today than I was then. Not having to do marketing, or write reports, and to have the luxury to pick only the select few companies that I choose to follow, are the reasons.
There are some contempory analysts however, which I consider good. Some of my favorites are Dan Niles of Robison Stevens, Mona Eriba of Grunthal, Charles Boucher of UBS, Charles De Sanza of Girard Klauer, Mike Gueren of Pershing and I think Chip Chiplinski(sp) of H & Q (who John Hull replaced). Each has their own niche for which they are best suited. The buy side analysts, as I do now, will use a combination of many analyst's inputs to get the total picture of a company.
Burt, as for your comments regarding Jack Rains. I have corresponded with Jack for more than two years. He possesses a wealth of experience and knowledge. As important, he is willing to share that knowledge with the BBs. However, for you and I, who are for the most part long term investors, the rapidity of Jack's trading, in and out of options, has less significance. I can only tell you, that I believe that my correspondence with Jack has often helped me confirm, or pick, good points to add to, or deleverage, my long term positions. He is hard to follow because he is so short term, oriented and often not specific, but I have gained emencely from our long term friendship. And if you don't tell him that I said so, I have recently attempted to do some short term trading, with a small percentage of my funds, because of his influence on me(g).
Regards, Jules |
