RE: Soup's selling reluctance
Long-term, I agree with your analysis of AAPL. It has amazing potential with enough questions still surrounding it to mean that much of that potential has not been priced in to the stock.
Short-term, however, AAPL is overextended. Today now makes 5 out of last 6 days closing 52-week highs. Wow. The stock has appreciated 22% in 2 weeks, and 47% since July 1st. Arguably, the major news has been released. The iMac opener has passed, and the next earnings release isn't until mid-October. Seybold promises more information about the 366 mhz machine and maybe a peek into the Pro line future, but nothing likely to move the stock substantially.
This is a perfect time for the stock to settle down a bit, off its highs, and build a more substantial base at these lofty levels.
I don't think AAPL will fall precipitously off its lows, nor do I think it is currently overvalued. If one is in for the long-term, I see no reason to get out.
From my perspective, however, I had invested in January call options. By definition, options players cannot think just long-term. To me, AAPL has greater downside risk than upside potential at $42+ over the next 1-2 months. Long-term, it's still a dirt-cheap bargain for a company that still has a chance to make some major waves and redefine its industry.
Andrew |
