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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets!
LRCX 158.70+1.0%3:59 PM EST

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To: Gary Burton who wrote (6707)8/17/1998 5:57:00 PM
From: Ian@SI  Read Replies (1) of 10921
 
Gary,

Seriously, do you believe a word of what you've written re Abbey?
If so, I suspect that you won't have to worry about friends / family asking you for a loan. <G>

If AJ-C predicts that the market will fall 2000 points, I sure wouldn't want to have a whole bunch of margin outstanding. By the same token, I sure wouldn't short the market just because AJ-C said it was going to go up. Either of those actions smack of utter folly. Yet you say,

" Abbey's
problem at this point is that her system is such that she will be unable to get off the
train only AFTER a severe correction in the market--prices lead news after all--at
which point she will then be able to see that her FA system is telling her to turn
cautious. Regardless of her past record, in my view, she has now become a contrary
indicator.


Will Abbey be wrong at some point. Definitely. But that's a whole lot different than betting that she'll be wrong at every point from this moment forward.

FWIW,
Ian
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