I have a question for you and William and any others that are bullish on Amazon. This is not to start a debate regarding the success or lack of of Amazon. I do know that some people on TMF on AOL do believe Amazon will eventually be a very profitable company. Do the bulls on this thread truly believe that or are the bulls looking at the stock momentum as a good play?
I believe that in the long run, AMZN will be a very, very successful company. I agree with Jeff Bezos' strategy of spending now to secure marketshare. I agree with his plans for expansion into CD's, videos, etc. Even with competition from Barnes, BKS, and Bertelsman, I think Amazon will triumph. The latest purchases for stock (ie, for free) of Planetall and Junglee were on target with the long-term plan.
If the money I had in AMZN stock were strictly risk capital, I would ride out the coming correction. I bought AMZN last March at 86 (pre-split) because I believed in the company, and had purchased many books from them and was excited about their business. I hoped to double my money in a couple years. As it turns out (thanks to the MMs and shorts) I tripled it in just under 5 months. That's good enough for me, for now.
I believe that one of two things will happen with AMZN in the next few days or weeks: Either it will rebound off 110 or 100 (in case, shorts, look out) to new highs, or it will correct back to 80 or 70. Either way, I predict a year from now it won't be dead (and it won't be at 40 or 5 as some predict) but at a new high. (Don't be surprised if there is another split as well, as options priced at 40 are a better attractor to employees than options priced at 80, no matter what the market cap is.)
I have to say I can see some merit in the claims of stock manipulation by the larger investment firms, and can see a definite affect by short-trading on the price. I believe that anyone would have to be crazy to short AMZN, even now. I respect all the information I got from this list, including an eye-opening education on the lives of day traders. If I get back in, you'll see me post again. Otherwise, good luck to everyone. |
