Please, you are not as verbose as I am when I respond. With this said, I want you to know it took 2 hours to read all 225 messages on this thread. I wanted to get some background from some experts here.
I have a couple of things to share. First, I am not a games or software specialist like some of you so I am carefully evaluating all that was said. When it comes to the semiconductor arena, I am a force to be reckoned with.
I do have a son who plays games on the PC and enjoys many of the titles mentioned in this thread.
First, when GTIS traded 8,000,000 shares recently, it was my understanding that given that it is traded on the NASDAQ, that number
represents both the buy and sell portion of the transactions. If I am correct, only 4,000,000 shares traded hands (4Mill buy and 4 Mill sold).
Second, when I walked into SAM's Warehouse and Best Buy, I noticed a greate deal of bundled GTIS software. Freddie Fish is bundled with another Humongous title and so is Duke Nukem. Also, at Best Buy, you can purchase 3 Duke Nukem titles for $ 19.99 each. Bottom line, as a consumer, I am seeing price erosion on the older titles which should reflect poorly in upcoming revenues.
Third, and more positively, when I talked to my stock broker friends, who have "technicians", they point out that there is a big recent gap between 8 and 13 on GTIS. They tell me that unless there is a real disaster coming or that the company is on the ropes, a vast majority of the time, the gap is re-filled within a short period of time. Gaps are usually indicative of a severe overreaction. To this end, they beleive that while people and institutions may do stupid things to cause this stock to drop further, GTIS represents an "interesting" opportunity.
As a distributer, GTIS may have been "stupid" to acquire as many titles and companies as it has over the past months, causing severe capital drainage and possible cash flow issues. However, Intel is known for investing heavily when the semiconductor industry was in a downturn only to be perfectly positioned on the next boom. We all wish we had $ 40 Intel (INTC) stock less than 24 months ago. GTIS' foray into acquisitions may position it well for the future and its overreaction in price can correct itself in the short term to close to 13.
Don't misinterpret me, once the gap is retraced or made up, the stock can steadily and uniformly drop in price. I purchased a great deal of stock at 7 5/8 after hearing about this latest dump. I will be a seller either when it reaches 11-12 or mid February, which ever comes first.
I tell you this because it is my impression that the technical chartists may be looking at this company as a short term "play". If so this will add volatility to an already tenuous situation. I felt that this should be shared.
Finally, to those who feel we can see 5 before we see 13, SO WHAT! I have only bought 2 stocks down to impending backruptcy (I do stupid things sometimes on the advice of brokers who are no longer my brokers) but have recently bought down all my positions in the semiconductor sector only to see it work out fantastically.
While GTIS and software titles are not core competencies for me, I will buy GTIS if it rides down toward 5 since even the naysayers on this thread beleive it will go up after the drop. For those hanging on to 15-20 stock, I encourage you to buy more in the 8-9 range to average down. A 1000 share postion at 20 is a $ 12,000 loss now (on paper). An additional 2000 shares at $8 doubles your original investment but triples your position. A subsequent rise even to $11 will result in reducing your losses to $ 6000. If the gap is indeed made up to the $13 level, you have reduced your losses to only $ 2000. Does anyone doubt that we will ever see $11-13. This will allow the faint of heart to exit from this stock sooner since as much as I would love to see $20 for those of you out there (and myself), I believe INTC will split 3 for 1 and go up 40% post split prior to seeing GTIS at $20.
But that's my opinion. |
