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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)

AMZN 222.55

-1.6%

Dec 15 3:59 PM EST

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To: Tom D who wrote (13857)	8/18/1998 1:14:00 AM
From: Rob S.	Read Replies (2) of 164684

I fathom what you are saying completely. One of the most difficult things about being a "serious" investor, particularly in volatile high-tech stocks is that you can never figure everything out. First you have to consider that management either might not be telling you "the whole truth and nothing but the truth" (future management courses will likely be re-titled "how to respond with "Clintonesque answers to questions"), or they may not be that on top of all the issues or so caught up in the "company line" of thinking that they miss major influences. There is also the possibility that management "shades the truth" for one reason or other. Then there is the truly unexpected event that capsizes or propels the boat forward. However, in the "sum of things" the stockmarket is both a collection of cumulative investments that over time represents growth in real assets, productivity and commerce and also a competition for the almighty dollar - a "net sum game" in which the only way one benefits is at the loss of another. It's got a tremendous amount of variables but its only out of frustration for all the confusion to say that it can't be figured out to some greater degree than average probabilities. All the FA and TA analysisonly buys you a higher degree of probability that you will screw up a bit less than the average investor. If your odds are enough better than 50-50 to pay whatever commissions your bound to then you "win" at least something. The best investors I have met, and I'm certainly not a great one by any means, have done extremely well by doing a lot of work, setting goals to capture the "heart of the move" - the 60%-80% of the stock or market move rather than try for the 110% many people seem to want - and by keeping highly diciplined. Good luck investing or playing doctor ; -).

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