mm>>And if the company pulls in 9M...probably
half of that just from the flight sim add-ons
esec>>*US$9 mil is [estimated] from NewKidCo alone
Well then, with most if not all of the add on revenue
getting stuck into this next quarter, it does seem
that they've done a pretty good job of lumping their
last lousy quarter behind them...and their best
revenues into this quarter--especially when you throw
a few million in there for whatever remains of the
hotmetal/xmetal franchise.
However...
I don't think it is very responsible of the company to
advertise 9M from NewKidCo, when for all we know, they
don't even have a beta of Elmo--but I guess you have to be
pretty excited about the possibility that these folks
have found a nice niche for themselves. Like I have said
before, when you consider the price of a Playstation,
and the host of problems with running multimedia software
on a PC (much less running on a PC by little kids!), then
this is certainly one of the best reasons to own shares
(and yes, make no mistake--at this price we are all OWNERS
now, hehe).
Anyway, lets assume they do 9M in the U.S. from NewKid
(the NewKids folks have options--so they'll be working
to get ski up to at least a few bucks per share by next
spring, so I guess we can live with this estimate)
add to that a few M for Hotmetal/xmetal, say 4M just for
kicks (who knows, maybe Allaire will overpay, HotMetal
and ColdFusion would make a good headline...hehe), and
another 4M for the add-ons, pretty soon you are up to
a nice quarter. Of course you can throw a couple million
in there for the ecommerce stuff, maybe more.
Anybody here happy with my little rough approximation of
20M revenue next quarter? Anybody else want to come up
with a silly approximation as I have out of the blue?
I wish I had held out til now to buy, could have saved
myself 25 cents a share, damn, but who would have guessed
the arbitration would have gone so poorly. If I could have
done it all over again, I'd have built up a position much
more slowly, foolish to buy my last third before the
quarter was up. And I guess if I was going to stick to
my rules, I'd be taking losses and selling a third at 5/8ths,
but I just cant force myself to take the loss. I shouldn't
even be whining...in at an average price of 15/16ths, I
may have the best price on the thread, most of you having
been here a lot longer than I.
And then there is the delisting--just the perfect environment
for the folks at newkid and ski to be aquiring shares, til
POP! suddenly the next earnings report is out around Thanksgiving,
and they're applying to be relisted. Meanwhile all the Americans
have been shaken out, and all the new shareholders live in Ontario.
Pretty clever...if that was the intent.
eom
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