Of course you are right about the effect of interest rates and inflation on the market. In retrospect, those factors are always obvious markers. That does not make it easy to judge the future, if only because inflationary events and interest changes occur which the market manages to swallow. I was not trying to suggest that the market was initiating a major decline. But it has gone up 1000 points on the Dow, without a significant correction, and things are bubbly. I suspect it will shed 300-400 points and then spiral up some more. I see no cause to question the underlying economy, and certainly business is having a golden age. Thirty years from now, it will be seen that the computer brought change equivalent to the Industrial Revolution. I do think one should consider that effect, and try to decide which of our measurement benchmarks this changes. Frankly, I don't know. But I recall that in my investments course, I was taught that a p/e of 10 was usually a fair evaluation. On a relative basis, I don't know that has changed, but where computing power has vastly changed the potential earnings of a company, and inflation is flat, it obviously is probably false. I said I find no fault with staying fully invested. Especially now, with the state of our economy. But my feel of the market simply cried out that it was a great time to rotate out of some things that have not met my expectations, or alternatively, had over-produced.
As to IGEN, the machines are being marketed for performance of about 40 tests, as I interpreted available information. And I was definitely intrigued to learn that the heart enzyme which elevates in a heart attack was among that number. Then, someone has said "no"; that still is pie in the sky. So I am unsure. It appears that FDA approval can be fairly quickly obtained for any test that improves some existing similar test, and they scraped up all the tests they could quickly get approved, to use in initially marketing the machines. The machines appear to be well received - they quickly sold 300 and had no production sufficient to handle those sales. They have plans and contracts to research and get approval of other tests, and it is my impression that testing will not be as large an impediment as getting approval of the tests. It appears that Origen, the substance used as a solution or medium, has been on the market for quite a while, and produces income. Obviously it had a continuing use in testing before development of the machines.
I also was intrigued that large companies have provided substantial funding to help make these developments. Finally, the information available is primarily what appears in the 10Q, a required report. One person on the thread speaks of calling and questioning those companies without being able to obtain significant information, and this is at the same time I see Igen erecting an apparent anti-takeover defense. In other words, it is not the usual flogging of a stock, unless the person contributing to the thread is the flogger. But I think that is not true because I think I have found evidence for everything he has said. And he is the person who reports that he calls Boeringher and it sounds like they never heard of this company named Igen, and can't tell him the price of the machines, et c, but promise to look it up and send him something in due course - well, you can see all that on this page at the Igen thread. I will be interested in your thoughts. |
