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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets!
LRCX 163.10-0.7%Dec 16 3:59 PM EST

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To: Mason Barge who wrote (6714)8/18/1998 9:15:00 AM
From: Ramsey Su  Read Replies (4) of 10921
 
Mason,

there are a few numbers that I have not been able to add up yet.

PC prices have tumbled for miscellaneous reasons. PCs are nothing but an assembled box of computer parts. INTC parts, are reported to be in limited supply so the prices should be stable. The MSFT part will always be ridiculously priced unless DOJ wins the battle. Now the DD and the DRAM prices are supposedly stabilizing. Wouldn't all of the above start putting the squeeze on the boxmakers', who had been benefiting from dropping component prices?

Then if we look at the components. Is INTC's shortage due to product transition, a normal cycle every few years? Is the DD situation due to free market forces finally getting supply/demand closer to equilibrium, but is the capacity still there? Memory prices, as we all know here, are due to cut backs and total shut down of fabs to artificially reduce demand.

So what is ahead? It is unlikely that PC prices will go back up. If component prices stabilizes, will the likes of Samsung and NEC start cranking up production so they don't lose ground to MU? Will there be a next round of price cuts from the components?

Ramsey
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