*AV*--I thought is appropriate to post this here since this is where my HOMEBASE is. I have been approached to collaborate on a project and am now sharing it with this community. Unfortunately this will become a fee based subscription but I will publish this as long as I can for the benefit of the community. It is where my universe and that of a daytrader collide. He gives me 65 stocks each night and I work my magic. So for your viewing pleasure:
BTW-I will try to post it here prior to market open from now on. Will be back tonight to catch up on replies.
Andrew
Radar Trader Newsletter
Scan List- High Tech Commentary
August 18 1998
Good Morning Folks - Apparently it came as a pleasant surprise to find myself part of the official publication yesterday. Having said that, I am taking some creative license to develop a style conducive to this reading audience. I have been providing these commentaries to a select group of people for some time. Therefore anything that states "see previous commentaries" was meant for people to look over their archives. So from now on, I would suggest, for the sake of brevity, to archive these issues or at least those stocks that intrigue you.
We have two schools of thought: more is better or brevity is the best. I am an information guy and believe knowledge is power. Therefore, I am trying to be as concise as possible but not at the expense of losing the
importance of solid informed investing. So until we have struck a happy medium, please develop a means for humoring me until I can reach the right mix.
With that said, those of you that read yesterday's "AND NOW A WORD FROM OUR SPONSOR" saw 3 stocks mentioned: VECO(Short), NVLS(Long), and KLAC(Long) which proved to be not only a triple crown event for today but also wound up having both the long positions appearing on today's list. VECO short was worth $1+ and the two Longs (NVLS/KLAC) each kicked in for ~$3 each for a net $7 for your efforts today. Not bad for a position trader.
Once again we see 21 stocks that are the intersection of my universe and that of your Daily Scan List.
GROUP 1 - Disk Drive Sector
RDRT(8-27/32,+9/32)
QNTM(19-1/4,0)
INVX(14-5/8,+29/64)
HTCH(23-3/16,7/16)
All are repeat performers from yesterday's list. No change in the comments or views expressed.
GROUP 2 - The Semiconductor, PC and Software Sector
CMOS -(19,+3/4)--- Not too sure why this appears on the list but it is a stock I follow. Nothing really noteworthy and looks as if it is trying to establish a new base and trading range after falling from $30 earlier this year. Trend is still negative even with recent positive action.
KLAC(31-1/8,+3) - Good News from INTC spilling over into some of the equipment companies and the favorable comments by SoundView Financial Group helped #1 equipment supplier Applied Materials Inc.(AMAT) jump up 2-3/16 to 33-5/16 while their rival KLA-Tencor Corp.(KLAC) managed to make a 3 pt run up to 31-1/8. SoundView reiterated a "long-term buy" rating and a "short-term hold rating".
NVLS(39-11/16,+3 5/16)--- Jumped in sympathy with the good fortunes of INTC, AMAT and KLAC. AMAT, KLAC, and NVLS make up a core group of equipment stocks that should react in concert with each other. when they do go out of sync with each other, the outlyer bears close scrutiny.
AMCC(25-1/8,+1 11/16)--IC manufacturer which has appeared here over the course of the last few weeks. Long term, the most significant recent announcement was about 3 weeks ago for this premier supplier of
high-bandwidth silicon connectivity for the world's communication infrastructure for SONET, ATM, Fibre Channel, and Gigabit Ethernet, using its mixed signal designs and the BiCMOS SiGe processes and technology now licensed from IBM.
biz.yahoo.com
MXIM(34-7/8,+1 3/4)---repeatedly appears on this list and seems to result in positive performance when it does appear. Past commentaries undoubtedly provide enough information as to why MXIM should be given
serious consideration as a respected leader in Analog and Mixed Signal design, not to mention some of the most cost effective manufacturing wafer fabs.
ADPT(13-7/8,+1/4)---had a press release today of little consequence but nonetheless provided for your reading pleasure.
biz.yahoo.com
What you really have here is a beaten down company with Asian exposure that is being offset by lingering rumors of a takeover by one of the "Big Boys" like COMS or INTC. Be that as it may, this company is refocusing their business, sent their ineffective CEO packing, and asked one of the brilliant co-founders to take the helm again on an interim basis. Trading at a small fraction of its historical 53 week highs, this
company might make a very good long term positional trade.
AKLM(7-1/8,+11/32) -- Really nothing to say since previous commentaries seem to highlight certain upcoming attractive situations and correlation to the MPRS takeover by Hasbro (HAS)
SPYG(11-1/4,+1 3/8)---Spyglass stock surges on contract with Motorola The most concise synopsis of what this means is found at the Motley Fool biz.yahoo.com
Other stories can be found at:
biz.yahoo.com
biz.yahoo.com
cbs.marketwatch.com
News was released officially at ~8:00pm EST yet we still saw this upswing in price. Buy on Mystery and Sell on history??? It would not surprise me to see a slight gap up in the morning before settling down.
Lots of press as you can very well see along with large numbers being thrown around. Stock traded at close to 7X average trading daily trading volume, was a successful daytrade on #radartrading, saw a swing of close to 2.5 pts all before the news was released. Does the word leak mean anything? And does the prospect of HERD MENTALITY come into play here?
NTAP(46-9/16,+1 5/16) ---was the topic of a previous commentary and might be available through the archives kept. for now, this slight overview of their business and the appearance of this list once again.
Network Appliance develops and markets dedicated network storage servers for UNIX, Windows and the World Wide Web. These appliances deliver fast, simple, reliable and cost-effective access to data stored in the network or across the Internet.
NOVL(11-3/8,+7/16)--not much action today and trading was done in an extremely tight range but the "Novell makes Y2K Upgrades Free" link at news.com gives one pause to wonder how many other software companies are struggling with the legal issues surrounding the YR2000.
AAPL-Apple stock jumps after iMac retail launch - Shares jumped to nearly three-year high after successful retail launch of iMac consumer PC this past weekend. Full story.
biz.yahoo.com
Most interesting story that might lead the charge of the momentum players AND the HERD mentality is found at
dailynews.yahoo.com
This stock is also getting a good deal of other good press with 12 month targets of $50 being mentioned. As the news proliferates you get groups of individuals just dying to jump aboard the train as it is leaving the station. Somewhere, the hoopla may die down and the last ones aboard might find themselves on a stalled side railing.
news.com
cbs.marketwatch.com
MUEI(14-3/4,+1/4)---no real update other than the friendly reminder that bot GTW and MUEI are seemingly on the chopping block for sale.
GROUP 3 - The rest of the Players
APCC(33-7/8,+15/16)--I like this chart since it really does paint a pretty picture of "waves" t profits. Over the past year we have seen two nice waves and the beginning of a third one. Wave #1 start in late
Aug97 at $24 and ended early Dec97 at 32. Wave#2 started late Dec97 after a precipitous drop to almost $22 and lasted until early May98 where it peaked just above $32 once more. This third wave started
somewhere in June close to $28 and looks as if there is still some momentum to push it above its present 33.875 even though $32 seems to be the stall point in previous attempts to breakout. We are within factions of the 52 week high here.
CHKPF(27-7/8,+3 1/2)---Trading a t1.5X average daily volume, going up >14% in one day and still trading closer to its 52 week low makes one wonder if this company is coming out of a long protracted 5 month
decline from $45 to current levels. Or possibly this is the long awaited DEAD CAT BOUNCE on record. Peripheral mentions in numerous news releases by other companies paint a very lackluster view of CHKPF in addition to being an F (foreign) company. From a personal perspective, CHKPF would not be my first choice in Firewall software arena even though it is one of the supposedly leading companies. Definitely NETA and CSCO would be my choices. I know that NETA occasionally finds its way on this list. I would do comparative charting of CHKPF, AXNT, NETA and CSCO and look for anomalies in trading patterns and price movements.
ICGX(28-7/16,+1 3/4)-Yet another previous member of the RST Scan list that also crosses my universe. ICGX looks as if it might be trying to turn a corner here. See previous archived commentaries.
ERICY(24-11/16,+7/8) - Everyone has got to have it favorite in the wireless communications sector. One of my personal favorites is ERICY, especially in its beaten down state. If you believe society is moving towards handheld data communications systems, then you should carve out a section of your long term portfolio for a wireless company of your choice. Whether it is NOKa, MOT, QCOM, ERICY, or whoever, eventually things will be rectified in the Asian region and the move to more mobile forms of voice-data transmission and reception will carry many of these companies to healthy profits. Extremely good news has been forthcoming here and should bring a smile to those interested in the telecom sector.
biz.yahoo.com Mobile Phone Networks in Russia
biz.yahoo.com World's First Snap-On Wireless Data/FAX Modem
biz.yahoo.com Ericsson Launches Tender Offer to Buy Preferred Shares in Brazilian Subsidiary
SAMC(7-7/32,+1/32)--hardly worth the effort even with a 3/8 range today(almost a momentary blip up). Still waiting for the DEAD CAT to make an appearance here.
AND NOW A WORD FROM OUR SPONSOR:
For those of you waiting for the other rocket to go off with MSFT (Win98 looking good recently), the following article on WinNT5.0 might be a worthwhile read: news.com
I have to believe that losing 1 months' revenues for luggage by SAMC in July would be devastating but the way the airline jockeys play football with your luggage, its almost a shoo in for replacements. My Briggs &
Riley took a severe beating on my kid's recent trip back East. As the dollar gets stronger, we have a tendency to see more tourism here in the US. Who knows.
Shorter than yesterday but probably more than what some of you want to see. As we work on the formatting of this publication we will try to re-organize the layout so it can try to meet the needs of a majority of you.
Andrew Vance
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Prosearch 5.0* Top Stock Report
08/17/98
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6> RDRT - READ RITE CORP COM .DPE
Price= 8.8 ( 25) AvgVl= 788.1 ( 97) 1-Dy = 103.2 ( 93)
2-Dy = 118.9 ( 99) 3-Dy = 117.9 ( 99) 4-Dy = 128.6 ( 99)
1-Wk = 121.4 ( 99) VL/30= 126.4 ( 90) 2/30 = 197.3 ( 92)
3/30 = 152.1 ( 87) 4/30 = 139.4 ( 84) 5/30 = 126.7 ( 79)
%Rnge= 56.0 ( 52) DRAvg= 67.0 ( 88) ConDy= 2.0 ( 98)
Exchg= 3.0 ( 51)
7> HTCH - HUTCHINSON TECHNOLOGY INC COM .DCO
Price= 23.2 ( 80) AvgVl= 581.4 ( 96) 1-Dy = 101.9 ( 88)
2-Dy = 107.2 ( 97) 3-Dy = 106.3 ( 95) 4-Dy = 111.4 ( 97)
1-Wk = 104.2 ( 93) VL/30= 76.8 ( 79) 2/30 = 174.3 ( 90)
3/30 = 158.1 ( 88) 4/30 = 139.0 ( 84) 5/30 = 131.8 ( 81)
%Rnge= 74.0 ( 64) DRAvg= 70.0 ( 91) ConDy= 2.0 ( 98)
Exchg= 3.0 ( 51)
10> AKLM - ACCLAIM ENTERTAINMENT INC COM .LTG
Price= 7.1 ( 19) AvgVl= 548.4 ( 96) 1-Dy = 105.0 ( 96)
2-Dy = 105.5 ( 95) 3-Dy = 105.5 ( 95) 4-Dy = 116.3 ( 98)
1-Wk = 112.8 ( 98) VL/30= 175.9 ( 94) 2/30 = 147.6 ( 87)
3/30 = 172.8 ( 90) 4/30 = 179.0 ( 91) 5/30 = 162.5 ( 89)
%Rnge= 79.0 ( 68) DRAvg= 54.0 ( 67) ConDy= 2.0 ( 98)
Exchg= 3.0 ( 51)
11> INVX - INNOVEX INC COM .DCO
Price= 14.6 ( 60) AvgVl= 230.2 ( 92) 1-Dy = 103.3 ( 93)
2-Dy = 113.5 ( 98) 3-Dy = 113.5 ( 98) 4-Dy = 108.3 ( 95)
1-Wk = 108.8 ( 97) VL/30= 192.4 ( 95) 2/30 = 198.9 ( 93)
3/30 = 168.2 ( 90) 4/30 = 152.4 ( 87) 5/30 = 136.2 ( 83)
%Rnge= 60.0 ( 55) DRAvg= 55.0 ( 69) ConDy= 2.0 ( 98)
Exchg= 3.0 ( 51)
19> SPYG - SPYGLASS INC COM .INT
Price= 11.3 ( 45) AvgVl= 327.3 ( 94) 1-Dy = 113.9 ( 99)
2-Dy = 109.0 ( 97) 3-Dy = 108.4 ( 97) 4-Dy = 110.0 ( 96)
1-Wk = 103.4 ( 92) VL/30= 546.5 ( 99) 2/30 = 289.8 ( 96)
3/30 = 205.1 ( 93) 4/30 = 159.0 ( 88) 5/30 = 136.4 ( 83)
%Rnge= 66.0 ( 59) DRAvg= 45.0 ( 46) ConDy= 1.0 ( 91)
Exchg= 3.0 ( 51)
21> APCC - AMERICAN PWR CONVRSN CORP COM .ELE
Price= 33.9 ( 89) AvgVl= 648.2 ( 97) 1-Dy = 102.8 ( 92)
2-Dy = 103.4 ( 92) 3-Dy = 101.8 ( 88) 4-Dy = 105.8 ( 92)
1-Wk = 101.8 ( 89) VL/30= 102.6 ( 86) 2/30 = 93.1 ( 68)
3/30 = 94.2 ( 67) 4/30 = 108.6 ( 72) 5/30 = 109.9 ( 71)
%Rnge= 81.0 ( 70) DRAvg= 53.0 ( 65) ConDy= 2.0 ( 98)
Exchg= 3.0 ( 51)
22> AAPL - APPLE COMPUTER INC COM .DCS
Price= 41.9 ( 93) AvgVl= 4923.0 ( 99) 1-Dy = 103.5 ( 94)
2-Dy = 106.3 ( 96) 3-Dy = 104.6 ( 94) 4-Dy = 107.5 ( 94)
1-Wk = 110.5 ( 97) VL/30= 168.8 ( 94) 2/30 = 125.2 ( 82)
3/30 = 107.1 ( 74) 4/30 = 111.6 ( 74) 5/30 = 153.1 ( 87)
%Rnge= 70.0 ( 62) DRAvg= 47.0 ( 50) ConDy= 2.0 ( 98)
Exchg= 3.0 ( 51)
24> ADPT - ADAPTEC INC COM .DCS
Price= 13.9 ( 57) AvgVl= 1933.6 ( 99) 1-Dy = 101.8 ( 86)
2-Dy = 104.7 ( 94) 3-Dy = 103.2 ( 91) 4-Dy = 106.2 ( 93)
1-Wk = 103.2 ( 92) VL/30= 85.0 ( 82) 2/30 = 109.0 ( 76)
3/30 = 106.0 ( 73) 4/30 = 99.3 ( 66) 5/30 = 100.7 ( 65)
%Rnge= 69.0 ( 61) DRAvg= 53.0 ( 65) ConDy= 2.0 ( 98)
Exchg= 3.0 ( 51)
26> CHKPF - CHECK POINT SFTWR TECH COM .INT
Price= 27.9 ( 86) AvgVl= 1162.2 ( 98) 1-Dy = 114.3 ( 99)
2-Dy = 114.6 ( 99) 3-Dy = 121.8 ( 99) 4-Dy = 123.2 ( 99)
1-Wk = 118.6 ( 99) VL/30= 136.3 ( 91) 2/30 = 94.2 ( 69)
3/30 = 90.1 ( 64) 4/30 = 75.7 ( 49) 5/30 = 69.6 ( 38)
%Rnge= 96.0 ( 78) DRAvg= 61.0 ( 80) ConDy= 4.0 ( 99)
Exchg= 3.0 ( 51)
28> CMOS - CREDENCE SYSTEMS CORP COM .EEE
Price= 19.0 ( 73) AvgVl= 214.5 ( 91) 1-Dy = 104.1 ( 95)
2-Dy = 107.8 ( 97) 3-Dy = 100.6 ( 82) 4-Dy = 105.5 ( 92)
1-Wk = 103.4 ( 92) VL/30= 97.7 ( 85) 2/30 = 84.3 ( 63)
3/30 = 78.2 ( 55) 4/30 = 102.4 ( 69) 5/30 = 90.3 ( 57)
%Rnge= 89.0 ( 75) DRAvg= 59.0 ( 75) ConDy= 2.0 ( 98)
Exchg= 3.0 ( 51)
31> KLAC - K L A TENCOR CORP COM .EEE
Price= 31.1 ( 88) AvgVl= 2032.4 ( 99) 1-Dy = 110.6 ( 99)
2-Dy = 113.1 ( 98) 3-Dy = 105.5 ( 95) 4-Dy = 102.4 ( 84)
1-Wk = 102.4 ( 90) VL/30= 178.3 ( 94) 2/30 = 146.4 ( 87)
3/30 = 132.0 ( 82) 4/30 = 115.3 ( 76) 5/30 = 109.8 ( 71)
%Rnge= 80.0 ( 69) DRAvg= 42.0 ( 39) ConDy= 2.0 ( 98)
Exchg= 3.0 ( 51)
32> ICGX - I C G COMM INC COM .TLO
Price= 28.4 ( 86) AvgVl= 908.9 ( 98) 1-Dy = 106.5 ( 97)
2-Dy = 108.5 ( 97) 3-Dy = 111.7 ( 98) 4-Dy = 121.6 ( 99)
1-Wk = 114.8 ( 98) VL/30= 59.8 ( 73) 2/30 = 70.2 ( 53)
3/30 = 71.6 ( 49) 4/30 = 104.2 ( 70) 5/30 = 112.5 ( 73)
%Rnge= 96.0 ( 78) DRAvg= 60.0 ( 78) ConDy= 4.0 ( 99)
Exchg= 3.0 ( 51)
41> ERICY - ERICSSON L M TEL CO A D R .TES
Price= 24.7 ( 82) AvgVl= 5695.8 ( 99) 1-Dy = 103.6 ( 94)
2-Dy = 106.7 ( 96) 3-Dy = 101.0 ( 85) 4-Dy = 105.6 ( 92)
1-Wk = 97.7 ( 33) VL/30= 150.0 ( 93) 2/30 = 167.0 ( 90)
3/30 = 155.8 ( 88) 4/30 = 146.8 ( 86) 5/30 = 150.2 ( 87)
%Rnge= 95.0 ( 78) DRAvg= 41.0 ( 37) ConDy= 2.0 ( 98)
Exchg= 3.0 ( 51)
42> AMCC - APPLIED MICRO CIRCUITS CP COM .ESE
Price= 25.1 ( 83) AvgVl= 331.6 ( 94) 1-Dy = 107.2 ( 98)
2-Dy = 101.5 ( 85) 3-Dy = 100.5 ( 82) 4-Dy = 103.0 ( 86)
1-Wk = 100.5 ( 84) VL/30= 96.0 ( 85) 2/30 = 82.4 ( 62)
3/30 = 82.5 ( 58) 4/30 = 97.4 ( 65) 5/30 = 87.5 ( 54)
%Rnge= 82.0 ( 70) DRAvg= 50.0 ( 59) ConDy= 1.0 ( 91)
Exchg= 3.0 ( 51)
43> QNTM - QUANTUM CORP COM .DPE
Price= 19.3 ( 73) AvgVl= 3262.7 ( 99) 1-Dy = 100.0 ( 59)
2-Dy = 108.8 ( 97) 3-Dy = 112.4 ( 98) 4-Dy = 123.2 ( 99)
1-Wk = 115.7 ( 98) VL/30= 70.5 ( 77) 2/30 = 139.3 ( 86)
3/30 = 124.6 ( 81) 4/30 = 130.4 ( 82) 5/30 = 122.2 ( 77)
%Rnge= 50.0 ( 48) DRAvg= 70.0 ( 91) ConDy= 0.0 ( 58)
Exchg= 3.0 ( 51)
44> NVLS - NOVELLUS SYSTEMS INC COM .ESE
Price= 39.7 ( 92) AvgVl= 1702.5 ( 99) 1-Dy = 109.1 ( 98)
2-Dy = 107.0 ( 96) 3-Dy = 103.5 ( 92) 4-Dy = 101.7 ( 80)
1-Wk = 98.4 ( 41) VL/30= 178.4 ( 94) 2/30 = 123.0 ( 81)
3/30 = 111.1 ( 76) 4/30 = 115.8 ( 76) 5/30 = 118.4 ( 76)
%Rnge= 96.0 ( 78) DRAvg= 41.0 ( 37) ConDy= 1.0 ( 91)
Exchg= 3.0 ( 51)
47> SAMC - SAMSONITE CORP COM .HOU
Price= 7.2 ( 20) AvgVl= 278.4 ( 93) 1-Dy = 100.4 ( 66)
2-Dy = 106.9 ( 96) 3-Dy = 125.5 ( 99) 4-Dy = 105.4 ( 92)
1-Wk = 90.2 ( 7) VL/30= 141.7 ( 92) 2/30 = 142.7 ( 86)
3/30 = 180.7 ( 91) 4/30 = 279.6 ( 97) 5/30 = 271.3 ( 97)
%Rnge= 56.0 ( 52) DRAvg= 54.0 ( 67) ConDy= 3.0 ( 98)
Exchg= 3.0 ( 51)
59> MXIM - MAXIM INTEGRATED PROD INC COM .ESE
Price= 34.9 ( 90) AvgVl= 1895.2 ( 99) 1-Dy = 105.2 ( 96)
2-Dy = 105.4 ( 95) 3-Dy = 102.0 ( 88) 4-Dy = 105.8 ( 92)
1-Wk = 103.1 ( 91) VL/30= 90.2 ( 83) 2/30 = 74.8 ( 56)
3/30 = 66.5 ( 44) 4/30 = 60.3 ( 35) 5/30 = 59.5 ( 29)
%Rnge= 97.0 ( 78) DRAvg= 50.0 ( 59) ConDy= 2.0 ( 98)
Exchg= 3.0 ( 51)
60> NTAP - NETWORK APPLIANCE CORP COM .DPE
Price= 46.6 ( 94) AvgVl= 215.8 ( 91) 1-Dy = 102.8 ( 92)
2-Dy = 100.1 ( 65) 3-Dy = 103.4 ( 92) 4-Dy = 106.4 ( 93)
1-Wk = 102.8 ( 91) VL/30= 66.3 ( 76) 2/30 = 70.8 ( 53)
3/30 = 65.3 ( 44) 4/30 = 55.9 ( 31) 5/30 = 70.2 ( 39)
%Rnge= 100.0 ( 99) DRAvg= 73.0 ( 93) ConDy= 1.0 ( 91)
Exchg= 3.0 ( 51)
61> NOVL - NOVELL INC COM .DSO
Price= 11.4 ( 45) AvgVl= 3363.6 ( 99) 1-Dy = 104.0 ( 95)
2-Dy = 102.2 ( 88) 3-Dy = 101.6 ( 87) 4-Dy = 105.8 ( 92)
1-Wk = 104.5 ( 93) VL/30= 66.3 ( 76) 2/30 = 60.9 ( 45)
3/30 = 58.8 ( 38) 4/30 = 72.5 ( 46) 5/30 = 72.7 ( 41)
%Rnge= 90.0 ( 75) DRAvg= 54.0 ( 67) ConDy= 1.0 ( 91)
Exchg= 3.0 ( 51)
62> MUEI - MICRON ELECTRONICS INC COM .DCS
Price= 14.8 ( 61) AvgVl= 904.2 ( 98) 1-Dy = 101.7 ( 85)
2-Dy = 105.3 ( 95) 3-Dy = 103.0 ( 91) 4-Dy = 108.2 ( 95)
1-Wk = 105.8 ( 95) VL/30= 47.9 ( 69) 2/30 = 49.7 ( 36)
3/30 = 56.0 ( 36) 4/30 = 69.4 ( 43) 5/30 = 76.2 ( 44)
%Rnge= 100.0 ( 99) DRAvg= 73.0 ( 93) ConDy= 2.0 ( 98)
Exchg= 3.0 ( 51)
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