I beg to differ. The stock went down with the DOW or market in general, or so one theory on this thread goes. Today, small and midcaps are starting to recover...where is AGPH. Just before the big AIDS conference the stock was at say 35. It's down 34% in less than a month. We won't look beyond that.
The stock does not have more money betting against it then it does for, in fact short interest is down I believe. In my five years of watching individual stocks and their relationship with major indexes by the minute, I can tell you that sentiment generally characterized by the DOW and other indexs will carry smaller stocks in the absence of news. The thought of more money betting against then for is simply plain hogwash and not true.
Let me sort it through for you...Sentiment is down on the company and it's management, and is worsening. We're dealing with a one drug company with increasing competition, and increasing expenditures. One of two shorter term hopeful drugs (AG3340) is perceived generally as a dead end, thanks largely to AGPH's hush hush and almost secretive approach to releasing trial results and the second shorter term potential drug (Remune) the jury's still out, but general sentiment (hopefully uneducated) seems weak at best. In addition selected insiders have sold significant portions of their portfolio's over the last year, with 0, thats zero insider buying.
Scrip data is very relevant, and in my two years of following this stock by the minute has weighed very heavily on sentiment and has very definitely influenced the stock price. The concern in case you haven't been following along is that Viracept sales will be dampened considerably by competition before they have any other revenue generators on the market, therefore, short of information on the pipeline, scrip data is the single largest influence on the stock and investors perception of it future over the next year or two. Any sign over a couple months that market share is slipping with no additional news on the pipeline and this stock becomes a teenager.
You may want to watch this stock and market all day every day for a couple of years before you come on and critize folks who have. I am very long this stock, probably longer than most non-institutional investors, and am very frustrated. IMO, the company does not know how to play the game. I'm only holding out to see if the stock looks like it's gonna get slammed again after the trade show in September, or if the Remune details speculated to be released will offer more optimism than their other ventures to date. Unfortunately, due to AGPH's inability to toot their own horn, a pattern of reduced enthusiasm after trade shows seems to be developing.
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