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MB, I've been making that argument a bit too long on this thread. The great unwashed have been pulled in, though, so I don't really think it matters for a while (a month? I'm not good at predicting short term movements in price). It'll at least be until things get really obvious in terms of the downturn. There's no way out for a major change in the business- as you said, the big will survive, and the small will either become big through merger, internal growth, etc. or they are dead in the water. The only way MU can do that is if they have big margins. I don't know about the death of MU, necessarily, because I have no idea what they're going to be able to do with Microstamp other than prop up their stock. I could see them transitioning totally to something like that, as Carl Johnson(?) predicted for smaller DRAM companies. They did spend 200M on r&d last year, so that could help them in the long run; not now though and not in the near future. I'm buying some puts next week- any advice? |