The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club Message Board

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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club

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To: Boca_PETE who wrote (148)	8/18/1998 10:34:00 PM
From: marc ultra	Read Replies (1) of 15132

Pete, people like to think they were correct. Most thought 3 things.1)Clinton did have sex with Monica and they even knew what type of sex he had. 2) They are very happy with the economy and stock market and they don't want the boat rocked.3)They don't like the Ken Starr investigation and some of the main characters involved in the Monica part of the investigation, namely Linda Tripp and Lucianne Goldberg. As far as media pundits they have been way off the mark throughout this scandal as many thought a resignation was forthcoming in January, and many like Michael Isakoff who was spoon fed information from Starr, Tripp or both have been quite shocked by the lack of public outrage. Yes I expect his job approval may take a small hit but mainly the gulf between his job approval and personal approval may grow if it can get any bigger. Politicians of both parties are going to look carefully at his job approval numbers since in what should be an incumbent's year everyone is afraid of rocking the boat if they turn out to be on the wrong side of public opinion. By the way I think that the conventional wisdom that he would have been better off making a confession in January is completely off the mark since as you may recall there was shock and a sudden explosive frenzy when the allegations first hit including all the allegations against Vernon Jordan and I think an admission at that time could have indeed left him with little support and a forced resignation. However by this slowly getting stretched out over 7 months with everyone gradually digesting it and many coming to intensely dislike Starr, when the admission finally came last night most people instead of shock said tell me something I haven't already known for a long time. Bottom line of all this looks like another correct Bob Brinker prediction that we will have a weak president spending his time defending himself (especially if Janet Reno appoints a campaign finance independent counselor) and Republicans not anxious to try to impeach since they would be running against a more formidable Al Gore in 2000. So a long winded way of saying probably not much market relevance no matter what happens. One other thing maybe Clinton has a point in his convoluted definition of sex. Can you imagine if Monica was pregnant? :-) Marc

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