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Strategies & Market Trends : Investment in Russia and Eastern Europe
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To: baystock who wrote (460)8/18/1998 10:45:00 PM
From: Rob Shilling  Read Replies (1) of 1301
 
I would wait a week and let things settle down before
thinking the ruble will be devalued 50%. The market will determine the price. The dealers on the streets are taking advantage of the situation. If you buy rubles at 9.5 to the dollar you could make a nice profit if the ruble settles in between the bands. The official rate today was 6.8. If Soros thought 15-20% was good enough, the ruble might find resistence if it goes much much higher than 7.
I guess I don't understand currencies too well, but that is my take on the situation. Look at Japan with a floating currency. They have "devalued" or depreciated 40% this year, but they are not being declared bankrupt over the outcome.
The IMF doesn't seem to have much of a successful track record, so Russia may have actually made a good decision. They decided to put money in peoples pockets and forget about throwing billions of dollars at the ruble to fight the speculators.
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