Waiting for the big Kahuna Message Board

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next

To: Investor-ex! who wrote (24637)	8/19/1998 4:49:00 AM
From: Philipp	Read Replies (1) of 94695

President Clinton: Guys, can we stop discussing Clinton's morals on this thread (there are coffee shops for that) and concentrate on the implications for the market? He is a cheat, a liar and a disgrace. But what is new here. You Americans knew that when you elected (AND reelected) him and you have only yourselves to blame for that. One may reasonably argue that the present rally is a Clinton relief rally, but he only triggered it, he did not cause it (the market was too short-term oversold). How high will it go? 1120 +/- 10 SPX points is the obvious target (allowing for some over-/ undershooting) if this is just the relief rally before the real BK. When can we expect the next serious downturn? I heard the week after Labor Day (September 7?) as potential target period. All the negative factors are still with us. 1. Asia: nothing has been solved here. Once the reform laws are stalled in the Japanese legislature, expect another sharp downturn. A Chinese devaluation is still in the cards. Speculators just have to adjust their strategy, but I cannot remember any case in recent years when currency speculators that are as determined as they are right now did not win in the end. 2. Russia: not really important, but always good for a pretext. The devaluation has not solved any of their fundamental problems. Things could turn much more serious again long before the 90 days breathing period is over. 3. Earnings warnings season is about to start again in a couple of weeks (perhaps even earlier); earnings growth for the total SP500 could easily become negative (including one-time charges). 4. Clinton: He has not solved his problems despite of what the market thinks today. In my view, he made a potentially fatal mistake by not properly apologizing and going on the offensive. I heard that he originally had planned to give a more apologetic address. His and Kendall's reactions tell me that his testimony was much tougher than even they expected. I think that Starr has more against Clinton than we know at this point. That is why Clinton has been trying to move this discussion to the political arena where he thinks he will have the upper hand. Impeachment proceedings are now extremely likely. Even Democrats have started to call for them. When will Congress get Starr's report? Will they start discussions before the November elections? If the public opinion turns severely against Clinton (as I would expect), this is a potential vote winner and even Democrats may have to support it. So things could move much faster than expected just a short time ago. If several of these factors coincide with another weak market situation like at the end of last week, a BK in the near future is a real possibility this time (unlike last week). Enjoy the rally while it lasts. Cheers, Phil

Report TOU Violation

Share This Post

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next