Gottfried, Teri, John L, Big Bucks, Lester E and others,
Following was a post I made last night to a few of you as to what I see is the near future of AMAT. However, having slept of my decision whether I wish to try and time the market, selling and then buying back in I decided to hold firm and ride the stock down as Lester E. states. Lester E. paraphasing, "I am a retired judge, conservative investor. All I know is the stock runs up and the stock runs down and I end up with twice the amount of dollars in approximately two years than I had two years before."
We know that 75% of a stock price is the sector which it is in and the Market as a total. We know that the Market is almost as it was DW wise as it was in 1990 and Tom Dorsey is comparing it to 1990. We also know that wall street last time jumped onto AMAT when they thought the BTB reached its bottom. Based on the above I have decided to hold since the upside reward is by far better than selling to try sell and then to get a better buy in increase shares at the low. It is just not worth the risk since the SEMI sector and market is in the 20% range and firmly in the oversold range. Gottfried in his post and his chart shows that we are getting close to the bottom in the BTB #'s. It is the range to buy with the realization that AMAT may go to the high teens or the low 20's, but the downside risk of waiting to that point becomes greater.
>Jan, When I looked at the AMAT chart on DW's site I see that Tom has a bottom projected at $21. Currently, it is at above the Bull support line and getting close to a bear resistance line at $36 if we draw a bear resistance line from the recent top of 38 down at a 45 degree angle. When I look at the AMAT chart of 1996 Tom's today Charted low of $21 looks very reasonable. At $19.50 it would also equal the approx. 63% down form the high of $60 of 1996. The split adjusted PE according to our NAIC was at 13.3 high average and 6.5 low average. This converted to presplit PE reinforces Tom's high of around $41/$42.746 and a low of around $20.8910.
"Refering to my IBD charts where using the DW Charting pattern since
February AMAT EPS has just broken yesterday from 90 to 70, RS just broke to 38 from 58 on 8/7, and the number of fund owning from 373 on 8/11 to 369 as posted this Tuesday. If you look at the AMAT chart with its formation of a triangle AMAT could go either way. However, it appears from the above data, IMO, it could continue south as noted on
Tom's Chart."
Naturally, the above is only my opinions and the data which I have reviewed from the Dorsey Wright site. Readers are reminded the old saving, "caveat emptor (buyer/reader beware)."
Responses appreciated.
Paul V. |
