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Strategies & Market Trends : Tech Stock Options

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To: donald sew who wrote (50245)	8/19/1998 11:49:00 AM
From: Saulamanca	Read Replies (2) of 58727

Jerry Favors Analysis Tuesday August 18 8 pm On Sunday evening we made it clear to subscribers that we looked for some sort of strong secondary rally to begin this week.We stated that rally would see the Dow retrace between 40 and 80% of the entire decline from the 9412 intraday high of July 17 to the 8263 intraday low of August 11.A 40% retracement would mean the Dow should have rallied to at least 8722 intraday. The Dow closed up 149 pts on Monday.At the highs today the Dow was up 155.76 points,reaching a print high of 8730.61. We closed up 139.80 at 8714.65. So far the Dow is following our forecast quite well. The cycles called for a rally from August 17 until August 25 plus or minus 2 days. The Bradley calls for the next top near August 24 plus or minus 2 days. We are not entirely sure the rally will last that long but until we see strong evidence to the contrary we will assume the rally has further to run.However even if that is the case it will not be a straight up affair.The hourly Dow is now into strong overbought territory.The 5-Hour RSI reached a high of 83.75 today,which is extreme. The 14-Hour RSI reached a high of 67.23.The 14-Hour RSI reaches overbought above 70 and we are not quite there yet,but we are getting close. This suggests that at some point tomorrow the Dow will begin a correction or pullback.Any decline below 8663 on a print basis will signal some further pullback. The 5-Day RSI closed at 65.18,and it does not reach overbought territory until it exceeds 70. This suggests there is still further room for higher prices on a closing basis despite the probability of some decline intraday tomorrow. As far as how far this rally could go the average retracement has been 62% . A 62% retracement here could carry the Dow up near 8975 intraday. But we have no projections that high yet.The highest projection at this point calls for 8860 plus or minus 59 points intraday. Short term traders we want you to sell longs if the Dow reaches 8807 on a print basis. Stock traders and mutual fund switchers you are still in cash.We cannot count on this rally going high enough or lasting long enough to make it worth your while to go long. Our primary goal for all subscribers is to go 100% short as close to the top of this rally as we can get. We will give you a list of stocks to short and we want mutual fund switchers to go long the Rydex Ursa Fund when the time comes. We also want you to go short the Dow Diamonds.One thing that is very clear is that if the Dow breaks 8263 intraday anytime from here on the secondary rally will be over and the next major wave down will be underway. Our bare minimum target for the next wave down is still 7390,and that is just a minimum target.We believe the Dow will ultimately fall much below 7390 after this rally peaks. e-mail info@jerryfavors.com MarketWeb InfoVision cCopyright 1998 InfoVision, Inc. P.O. Box 2124, Fort Collins, CO 80522-2124 marketweb.com (970) 224-4441 - FAX (970) 484-4840

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