Pasted from Raging Bull thread:
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By: jpublic89 Reply To #530 by snrs7
Wednesday, 19 Aug 1998 , 10:54 AM EDT
Post # of 537
SNRS7, yes. The stock price will move up before FDA approval, IMO. There are a number of events that will cause the price to rise. This is what I foresee.
1. The first event could be a road show where Russ Trenary, the CEO, articulates the SNRS story to institutional investors, brokers and analysts in NY, Boston, and elsewhere. It was rumored on one of the threads that there would be a road show in September. I don't know if this is anything more than a rumor but that timing would make sense. Based on admr's recent post of Vickers data, we only have 3% institutional ownership prior to NASDAQ listing. I'm sure there was some upon listing, but there is room for a lot more institutions to get into a "baby VISX."
2. There is the ESCRS (European Society of Cataract & Refractive Surgery) meeting in Nice, France, September 6th through the 9th, which, like the ASCRS, is a major meeting. I would expect to see news from that meeting by way of more papers published. Further, I expect there will be sales at that meeting.
3. There is a symposia in NYC October 3rd and 4th put on by Ocular Surgery News that will give Wall Street types a chance to become acquainted with SNRS.
4. AAO (American Academy of Ophthalmology) will be in New Orleans, starting November 8th. This is the biggest meeting for Ophthalmology. Sunrise stock price always moves up at this meeting, sometimes a little, other times more. This would be a perfect time to announce the submission of the PMA. I guaranty there will be a big move in the stock if SNRS is able to pull off a submission by the Academy. Even if they don't, there will be enough evidence that the submission is imminent to cause many ophthalmologists to pour money into the stock. A lot of analysts, institutional types and major investors attend this meeting as well as ophthalmologists.
5. PMA submission. If it did not happen by AAO, then there will be a significant move in price when the submission occurs.
6. After the FDA reviews the PMA, there will be an announcement by FDA that the PMA has been placed on the agenda of the Ophthalmic Devices Panel. It is remotely conceivable that this could be as early as the January Panel, but it is more likely at the April panel, IMO.
7. The panel meets and SNRS will either get a recommendation to the FDA for approval or for conditional approval with more data. Recommendation will probably be conditional unless submission and data are perfect. The stock will take a big jump in price here.
8. The FDA will then either approve within several weeks to several months of the panel meeting depending on whether they need additional data from Sunrise. This news results in another big move in the stock.
There are a number of other news events possible. These could include news of other indications for use and the initiation of trials, etc.
From event #8 above onward, the progression of news will be about the same as what we saw for VISX since September of 1995 when they got approval. You will need to hang onto you hats for each of these events, but when per use fees overtake equipment sales, look out. This will be the Mother of all SNRS moves in price. I don't know if I will have a yacht in Boca, but I will have one somewhere on the West Coast by then.
Regards,
jpublic89
(Voluntary Disclosure: Position- long; ST Rating- strong buy; LT Rating- strong buy)
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