So William, what are your growth conclusions now?
Although 2q98-2q97 growth is better than the prior quarter, it is still declining. Last year, growth was well over 100%, now it's down to about 70, still good, but think about it. If Dell's growth averages about 70% for the rest of the year, then that means that, if Dell's stock price stays commensurate with growth, it will be at 195 next year, assuming an average price of $115. Although Dell's higher now, it will come back down. With slowing growth, the p/e will start to decline at some point, which means that stock price increases may be less than the $80 increase that would occur with commensurate growth in stock and company. The days when Dell's stock quadruples, triples, or even doubles are over. |
