Speaking of puts on the fair-haired children of the bull market, I am considering MSFT puts, although not for another few months, since MSFT has a little gas left in the tank.
After everyone who's going to NT4 does, NT5 looks like trouble at best. The Gartner group, I think, recommended that even 'bleeding edge' clients postpone NT5 until the first Service Pack, and that others wait as late as 2001. There's a _lot_ of new code to go wrong.
NT6, which promises some much-needed 'granularity', sounds more promising. That, of course, is long from fruitition. My thinking is to let MSFT run up another three to six months, and start buying thirds each quarter thereafter. NT5 will be postponed again, then disappointing (12-18 months out), at which point MSFT should correct.
Wishful thinking? Yes. In a year or two this post will probably be embarrassing to me, but hey - it could happen.
mb |
