Formerly About Applied Materials Message Board

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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 322.32

-5.6%

Jan 30 9:30 AM EST

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To: uu who wrote (23092)	8/19/1998 6:36:00 PM
From: BelowTheCrowd	Read Replies (1) of 70976

> And I am sure it has been extremely painful for him! If he shorted AMAT last year, being bearish actually worked out quite well for him. In fact, if he shorted anything EXCEPT the S&P 100 or the internet stocks, he did quite well. The bull market in the megacap indexes is not reflected most other places. > it is absolutely ridiculous to compare the current situation with any time in the past since IOW, "It's different this time!" Undeniably true, in some vague sense. But markets have always reverted towards a mean. His theory (reversion to the mean) at least has some historical data to support it. Yours ("everything's changed") has none. > mixing up various topics from Intel laying off people to Windows NT being late (!), to Y2k problem... Let see. Intel has to lay off people because they can't sell enough chips at high enough prices. In large part because there is just NO software which demands the faster chips, so why buy them? There is no software pull in large part because MSFT hasn't delivered anything new and revolutionary in Win98, and WinNT 5.0 -- which might really demand better hardware -- isn't going to show up anytime soon. In addition, IT shops -- who historically drive demand for a lot of new PCs -- aren't buying, because huge amounts of money need to go into Y2K issues, leaving little for equipment and other software upgrades. (Believe me, I've been there. 2 "hardware-hungry" projects cancelled in 1.5 years to move resources onto Y2K. So our people are still working with old equipment and old software.) mg

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