INDEX UPDATE
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It appears that my CLASS SELL had a good beginning, but now will there be follow-thru to the downside. Statistically, in other than a strong uptrend as we had in JAN-MAR, the second day after my CLASS SELL signal(tomorrow) should be a nice down day in the range of 50-100 DOW points. If tomorrow does not close down tomorrow in that range, such action could imply that the market could reverse back up, and we all know anything can happen in this market.
The market internals did not improve today and in many cases it worsened; therefore all is in order for further decline tomorrow.
Actually there was some strength in the market today, although not that strong since the market did close down. The TICK got as low as negative 900 and at that time the lowest the DOW could get was negative 50, even in light of the DOW TRANSPORTs dumping and significant weakness in other major indexes like the RUT.
On the subjective side, I feel that since there is so much uncertantee in the market, do not feel there will be a clear short-term (1-5days), direction for the next 2 weeks. I feel that the market will be going up and down action which will make this market very hard to trade untill the first week of SEPT, which I feel will be the strong turning point to the downside.
There is also a chance that the big decline may have just started today although that is less probable. If we start seeing volitile UP and DOWN days as we saw around 9000 at the end of JULY and similar action around 8600, which I called STAIR-STEPS, then this may be it.
If we start that STAIR-STEP action again, I would think that such would last 4-6 days ending around next TUE/WED/THUR, and then the big decline to begin. That does not mean that it will dump immediately but that the proccess will begin. I still feel that the 2nd to 3rd week of Sept will have the highest probability of the big fast dump like last OCT. Such timing would be close to what Jerry Favors is calling for at AUg 24.
Seeya |
