Beeble,
The last time I heard DORSEY on CNBC, which was either this week or last week, I did recall that he felt that we should be turning around soon, but he also indicated that we could go down a little more but not a big dump. Is he saying now that we are heading straight up, or the same position that we are near the bottom, and could still go down a little more?
My position is actually very simple, based of the the main principal of TA which is HIGHER HIGHS & HIGHER LOWS = UPTREND, and LOWER LOWS & LOWER HIGHS = DOWNTREND.
Right now we are in a mid-term downtrend (5-30 days). We have set the first lower low when we recently broke 8500. If we do head down right now, that would indicate that we produced a LOWER HIGH, and would confirm the mid-term downtrend pattern. The next step is whether we break 8300 to the downside. If we do, it would confirm the downtrend again and strongly imply that we are in a long-term, not just mid-term downtrend. Lets say that we retest 8300 range again and start to move up - now that would be the first indication that we could be reversing.
To make it more confusing, I also have a THIRD type of trend which few consider it or call it a trend, and that is the RANGE TRADING TREND.
We could also just be in a RANGE TRADING TREND for the rest of the year and into part of 1999. If we retest 8300 and it holds, then I would first interpret that as a hint or slight confirmation of a RANGE TRADING TREND rather than a reversal straight into a solid UPTREND where the market will set higher highs.
BEEBLE, as you have noticed I am still quite negative to this market but I will not yet call for another huge pullback down to the 7300 range. I am leaning towards 7700-7800, which is still a 11% drop from here, but I am still waiting for the break of 8300 to make my position firm.
Im a trader and I have concluded that for myself, I earn the most when the market range trades not when it is in a firm trend in either direction.
seeya |
