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Technology Stocks : DELL Bear Thread

DELL 140.77

+1.4%

Nov 12 3:59 PM EST

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To: lin luo who wrote (1600)	8/20/1998 9:34:00 AM
From: Moominoid	Read Replies (1) of 2578

ARIMA I realized after your last message that maybe you think I'm using ARIMA models to forecast stock prices. I'm not. I don't think that is possible. Also I'm not using an ARIMA model in the sense of the Box-Cox tradition, though some of my models may have ARIMA representations. Actually I've never used Box-Cox ARIMA models for anything. I think econometrics has progressed quite a bit since then. I'm not even producing a forecast with an econometric model as such. The numbers I might post are either based on fundamental analysis or they are simply likely bounds based on a naive extrapolation of Bollinger Bands. Also I think Elliott Waves are about as scientific as psycho-analysis. However, Elliott type patterns do show up and it would be interesting to get the Elliott traders take on the situation.

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