<But MacLellan
warned that the revenues have already been included in
Newbridge's numbers and shouldn't have much impact on
analysts' figures. He also said the wireless industry has a poor
record of fulfilling its promises. "It's good news but we have to
put a question mark beside them.">
Analysts make forcast base on NN guidance.Contracts could be included in recomendations (buy or strong buy etc.) but NOT numbers which are konw after contracts announcmets!!!.That the difference.
HERE ARE articles with statments from MacLellan shortly before february crash( nice game Mr.McLellan !):
Jones Newswires -- January 8, 1998
Newbridge Down Sharply; Analyst Cuts Earnings Forecast
By Ben Dummett
TORONTO (Dow Jones)--Newbridge Networks Corp.'s (NN) stock is down sharply Thursday, after TD
Securities Inc. technology analyst David Beck cut his fiscal 1998 earnings projection for Newbridge.
In addition, on Wednesday market rumors began circulating that Kanata, Ont.-based Newbridge was guiding
analysts to sharply reduce their earnings projections for the current fiscal year ending April 30 and for fiscal
1999. These rumors have also hurt the stock, said Rob MacLellan, technology analyst at SBC Warburg Dillon
Read.
But "the rumors are categorically untrue," said MacLellan, who talked with Newbridge officials Wednesday
night and Thursday morning. MacLellan said he plans to issue a research note later Thursday to help dispel the
rumors and to reiterate his "buy" recommendation on the stock.
A Newbridge spokesman said the rumors are "untrue.
MacLellan said Beck's decision to "fine tune" his earnings projections compounded concerns fueled by the
market rumors.
Beck wasn't immediately available for comment. In his reseach note published earlier Thursday, Beck said he
still rates Newbridge a "buy," despite reducing earnings estimates for the company.
In the note, Beck cut his profit estimate for Newbridge's fiscal 1998 to C$1.49 a share from the previous
estimate of C$1.54 a share, after reducing his fiscal 1998 sales projection for Newbridge's time division
multiplexer, or TDM, business to C$776 million from C$805 million. A review of pessimistic market growth
forecasts for TDM sales prompted the reduction in the sales estimate, Beck said in the note. For the same
reason, Beck cut his TDM sales estimate for fiscal 1999 to C$783 million from the previous estimate of C$873
million.
To: Sans Souci (2681 )
From: Sans Souci
Friday, Jan 9 1998 1:39AM ET
Reply # of 6036
NEWS ARTICLE: "Newbridge stock hit by rumors"
Friday, January 9, 1998
LINK: canoe.ca
"Newbridge stock hit by rumors"
By AMANDA LANG
Technology Reporter The Financial Post
Shares of Newbridge Networks Corp. fell 9% yesterday amid rumors of weaker sales in the coming year and
increased competition from its
biggest rival, Cisco Systems Inc. The stock has fallen $8.45 in the past two days.
Newbridge's shares (nnc/tse) fell $4.80 in Toronto yesterday to close at $46.55, and (nn/nyse) dropped US$3
3/8 in New York to close at US$32
1/2.
Analysts said rumors began to circulate Wednesday that Newbridge was advising some institutional investors to
lower their expectations for
sales in the two fiscal years ending April 30, 1999. Although Newbridge said that is not the case, the rumors
gained credibility after one
Canadian analyst lowered his earnings estimates on the company.
But TD Securities Inc. analyst David Beck's new target is squarely at the mean of other analysts' expectations
of $1.49 a share, and he
maintained his "buy" rating on the stock.
Meanwhile, analysts said the stock may be reacting to Cisco's increased investment in Skystone Systems
Corp., an Ottawa-based company it
acquired last June. That is troubling because Skystone's products rival Newbridge's asynchronous transfer
mode (ATM) products, which are
its fastest-growing product group.
Investors are counting on sales from Newbridge's ATM products to help offset lacklustre growth from its other
products, including its
troubled UB Networks unit.
Newbridge will take a writedown for UB this quarter, which ends Jan. 31.
There was some good news yesterday for the company: MCI Communications Corp. renewed its marketing
alliance with Newbridge for two
more years. There had been concern its merger with Worldcom Inc. would cause MCI to withdraw from the
alliance, said Rob MacLellan,
analyst at SBC Warburg Dillon Read Inc., who yesterday repeated his "buy" rating on the stock, with a
12-month target of US$60 to US$65.
Analysts said recent economic turmoil in Asia will not affect Newbridge much, since only about 5% of its total
sales are to countries in
distress -- most of its Asian sales are to China. |
