Sam,
That was a nice write-up for SI. Good job. The more I watch this stock from the sidelines, however, the more apparent it is to me that this stock price is not going to "take off" until the company handily beats earnings a few times. It's a wait-and-see stock. Although the company has increased their earnings over 100% since a year ago, the price followed suit, almost exactly, from 4-plus to about 11 three months ago, before falling back to it's current price. That is probably what the company should trade for right now, so it is undervalued now IMO.
You have to admit, painful as it might be, that in 1998 PM has been dead money. That is not to say you and all the longs are going to lose money from here. This isn't the kind of stock that anyone is going to take a beating on, either, as is always possible with a tech or internet stock. And PM has a nice long-term story. But it is not without a risk. Everything depends on them earning money and beating estimates. Personally-- feel free to disagree with me-- I do not have a lot of faith in Mr. Lee or the PM public relations. When he told TexasDude before the Q1 results that "the shareholders will be pleased" I thought, well, it's a small cap, why shouldn't the guy speak with confidence to a caller? I think we were all disappointed by the results then, and we should keep our minds open to the possibility that this wonderful company might be run by a less-than-dependable CEO. I think institutional investors may have this feeling, which accounts for why they aren't buying right now. They want to see the numbers earned-- not just projected by analysts informed by Mr. Lee's guidance.
In summary, I don't think it's such a bad idea to exercise caution here. A small position at 9 I can't argue with, since I think the price should be at least 10 and maybe 11, but to jump in with everything strikes me as something between an act of faith and outright gambling, because the stock IMO is only going to make a serious move on the basis of strong earnings.
Good luck.
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