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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services
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To: diana g who wrote (28033)8/20/1998 10:52:00 AM
From: JZGalt  Read Replies (1) of 95453
 
diana, You are correct, that predicting the according to the trend or "declaring" the bottom are just two forms of a prediction. I've just been a little tired of watching the bottom be "predicted" at 90, then 80, then 75, then 65, then 60, then at 55 on the OSX as the sector continues to freefall. I'll wait for the turn in oil prices before I put more money into this sector and I admit, I will not get the best price for anything I buy.

As far as the time lag, I think there will be one. The OPEC agreement in March perked this sector right up, only to have the stocks riddled as the countries involved in the agreement cheated. People have lost quite a bit of money and the analysts who push these stocks will be much more cautious about issuing the flurry of buys that we saw in March whenever the turn comes. The lack of the "retail buyer" will limit the upside on the initial turn IMO. So, I think there will be a lag in the stock prices even if the prices do firm up and move toward $15 and above. I don't think it will take an actual pickup in the physical drilling before the stocks wake up however. Remember you don't turn e&p budgets on and off at the drop of a hat.

Of course, that is yet another prediction. <grin>
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