Andrew, tell you what lets look from a TTM perspective. Lets also try and choose conservative qtr earnings thru next year. Take it a qtr at a time. This next qtr, 4th, ending in Sep. Conservatively, I'd guess flat with last qtr - $0.50. Why, company guidance for slight revenue increase, increased costs and slightly decreased margin. Do you buy this? This gives trailing qtrs of .34, .38, .5 and then .5 for $1.72 ttm. Apple is valued at about 25 on a ttm basis so stock price without fwd looking would be 43. Agree?
Take 1st qtr ending Dec. Expect PB, G3 and iMac to propel Apple ahead for Xmas. Taking a guess, how about $0.65 a 30% increase qtr to qtr. Comments? That would be on a ttm basis .38, .5, .5 and .65 for $2.03 X 25 = $50.75. Agree? By the way this is the big play IMO.
Take 2nd qtr ending Mar. What's happening - G3 refresh, a PB refresh and possibly a iMac refresh. This is based on SJs coments that they would try and hold to a 6 month refresh sked. We've heard all about Altivec and copper but not from Apple. If Apple incorporates this tech in 2nd qtr could be pretty decent sales. If not assume a fall off from previous qtr. Based on year to year comparison how about $0.45 and 18% year to year gain. Previous year 2nd qtr only had G3 product while this qtr have PB, G3 and iMac. This would give on ttm .5, .5, .65 and .45 = $2.10 x 25 = $52.5. So I'm thinking a spike in Jan followed by slow upward bias. Comments. Lets leave it there till you respond. Rich |
