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Strategies & Market Trends : Point and Figure Charting

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To: Ms. X who wrote (6006)	8/20/1998 2:15:00 PM
From: Paul V.	Read Replies (1) of 34811

Jan and Duke, I am various cautious with AMAT of the SEMI's. It could go either way as hit has built the DW triangle. If you look at the DW AMAT chart you will see that Tom has the bottom noted at $21. When I compare the previous percentage down from the 1996 high of $61 to $21 you have a 63% downturn. Placing this downturn on this cycle high of $54 you have approx. $19.5. Big Bucks and others on the AMAT site is calling for a low range of $17-22. Also, if you look at the 1996 chart in chartcraft you will see a similar pattern which would take AMAT to approx. $21. The average PE of AMAT is 26.1 according to our NAIC DATA but the lowest was 6.5 in 1996. The high PE was 39.0. However, I recall that the PE actually hit a 50+ for a short duration in the previous cycle when the EPS was low. Wall Street appears to love the Gorilla stocks of Intc, Msft, Csco, Amat, etc. and is willing to inflate the PE. Duke, and Jan what are your reads on the AMAT charts and the Semi sector? Do I appear on track with my logic or am I missing something? Just my $.02. Paul V.

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