Trico Marine Services (TMAR) Message Board

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Gold/Mining/Energy : Trico Marine Services (TMAR)

TMAR 22.41

0.0%

Nov 7 9:30 AM EST

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To: monu who wrote (691)	8/20/1998 5:00:00 PM
From: D.J.Smyth	Read Replies (1) of 1153

no matter how i swing the numbers for the 4th qt. i can't come up with $.29 as does agular. trico stated this a.m. that average day rates will be around $5900 for supply boats with high 60's utilization; assuming, let's say 65% utilization (not counting any boats that are permanently drydocked). this generates revenue of about $17.1 million they also stated that utilization in the north sea will remain extremely high with day rates still above $15,000. "extremely high", i take it would be above 90% (as it was this quarter). nevertheless, using 80% utilization we come up with revenue of $18.4 million lift boats day rate is expected not to change at all. but let's lower it anyway to $5500 a day (from $6072) with 75% utilization (although they clearly stated that (a) rates would be higher for the lift boats as the two lift boats that were drydocked were their largest and already have contracts for operation at higher rates and (2) utilization would equal 100% as all six boats will be operational in the 4th qt.), revenue equals $2.2 million crew boats at $2081 with utiliztion dropping to 80% (although not expected to change from 90% this past quarter) yields revenue of $3.3 million. total revenue equals $41 million. profit margin is not expected to change from current 21%. we still come up with $.42 in earnings at the most pessimistic level. at the more likely level, earnings will equal $.46 on revenue of $46 million - and all this assumes no cost cutting. their net profit margin in the past was as high as 29% (prior to acquisitions) when crews weren't kept fully employed and boats weren't drydocked for upgrades/repairs. you should also be able to add $.01 or $.02 for debt reduction taking place in the 4th. agular is using TDW's rate scenario for TMAR. Agular didn't even bother to call TMAR according to TMAR to develop his rate scenario; i.e., he has no idea which percentage of boats belong to deep water versus shallow to develop a clear rate picture for TMAR. and the upgrading that TMAR is currently doing will well position them for next year's run ahead of both TDW and HMAR.

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