ALL: As Promised. Experts from the historical files of YAHOO site:
Date: Apr 25 1996 1:28PM ET
Despite the much publicized euphoria surrounding Yahoo!'s flotation, I am not sure how they expect to profit from the Internet! There are plenty of equally good search-engines for browsing through the www. I therefore am finding it difficult to find fair value for the stock! I estimate a range between $25 -$35 , but thats just an oppinion! If anyone has any more concrete ideeas it would be nice to hear them.
ursday, Feb 6 1997 10:24PM ET
Reply # of 13619
Peter, I can't predict YHOO's short term price, but 6 months to a year, it will definitely be lower, very much lower than today. It's now trading at 90 times projected earnings two years away. Ad revenues will be spread among hundreds and thousands of web sites, NOT just confined to the search engines. YHOO will have only a small chunk of the total ad revenues on the net. YHOO just can not justify a market cap of $1 Bil. Within the search engine sector, YHOO is no longer the leader in terms of market share. After buying Web Crawler from AOL, Excite and Web Crawler combined now have larger market share. Obviously, all search engine stocks have enjoyed a very nice runup this year. The party will come to an end, and their prices will again fall back to earth. Beside YHOO, I also shorted LCOS today.
Regards,
Friday, Feb 7 1997 8:38PM ET
Reply # of 13619
Don, thanks for the post about YHOO downgrade. In my experience,
the common sense intepretation of brokerage firm's recommendations
is as follows:
Analysts really means
strong buy buy
buy don't buy, OK to sell
hold sell
They almost never issue "sell" recommendation, so one has to read
between the lines, particularly the langugage accompanying the
recommendation. In the case of YHOO, since it stated that price has
jumped 54% from Jan 14, my interpretation of the downgrade to buy
is to sell if you have profits, and don't touch it with a ten-foot
pole if you haven't owned it.
I'd be interested to hear others' opinions.
Tom
Friday, Feb 7 1997 11:02PM ET
Reply # of 13619
Andrew, I am a yahoo who bought yahoo! I bought it today at 30 1/2. Its just a short term trade. It is a bit of a contrarian trade. It just seems like too good of a short...so I bought it. I hope I don't get too hurt. I'm looking for all the shorts to panic push it to about 40 next week.
good luck to all
Saturday, Feb 8 1997 12:15AM ET
Reply # of 13619
Come on David, now your getting rediculous. Here is my reasoning. After looking at a chart it occured to me that it was a powerful upmove on heavy volume. I agree the fundamentals are suspect at best. However, IMO the stock is not ripe to fall just yet. And yes it is readily appearant to everyone that it will fall. It just won't be that easy. Not all the shorts are as disciplined as you. I just want a push to the upper 30's before it falls. I know I said the 40's, but that was just wishfull thinking. What is your position on the stock short term?
Saturday, Feb 8 1997 1:49PM ET
Reply # of 13619
No I don't think it will go back to 40. If it shot up to 800 [comparable to YHOO at 30], I would think it would be headed back to under 400.
YHOO at 24 will still be over 60 times estimated earnings two years from now. Think about that for a minute. How many stocks traded at that kind of a multiple and what happened to them? Look at DNA or ZITL.
Looking forward to seeing you posting your buy at 25 this week. I'll be buying at around that level myself, to cover my shorts from the last week in January.
Tuesday, Feb 11 1997 9:53PM ET
Reply # of 13619
It looks like the longs AND the shorts have no conviction. This stock could go either way. I sold my long today for a small profit.
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