Peppe,
I seem to remember Pat Mudge correcting your inaccuracies in the past, so I will leave that task to this thread's heroine. :-) But rather than let you off completely, I do have a couple brief comments.
Allow me to be a bit of a devil's advocate on this one ...
I did a little research.
From the following nonsense, it would appear that this is a very true statement, you did very little research and a whole lot of fabrication.
The biggest cost of deploying an LMCS network is not in the ATM switches but in the RF radio side. It seems as though Alcatel is providing the radios and NN the ATM component. To call this a $ 1Bwin for NN is misleading. To be conservative, let's say half of the $ 850 Mill. goes to NN. That gives us $ 425 CDN, over 5 years.
Whoa, Peppe. Where are you getting your numbers from? Certainly not the Newbridge press releases. There were 2 of them that indicated that NN had about $400M each over 4 years, unshared with Alcatel. These were NN press releases talking about NN contracts generating revenues to NN, if my memory serves me correct. I didn't want to do any more research than you, however.
So now it's an average of $ 80+ Mill. per year in new business. Convert that to US dollars, and were down to $ 50 Mill. US per year.
Whoa again, we still have 2 $400M + contracts, 2 contracts for unspecified amounts, and perhaps another 1-2 press releases by the time earnings are reported next Tuesday. I'm willing to bet that the total business in these press releases will easily exceed $1B by end of day Tuesday, Wednesday at the latest which is in excess of $650M US which is in excess of $160M annually which is much better than pocket change. For me, at least. But perhaps you have more change in your pockets.
Factor in the uncertainty of the technology (no one has successfully rolled out a large scale LMCS/LMDS network in the world yet) and I can understand why the stock isn't trading at $60 US yet.
This is an argument! Are you a Luddite? Just because you say there's no large scale implementation anywhere in the world, we should believe that it can't or won't be done any time soon or hasn't happened already. Sorry, you have yet to establish any credibility whatsoever with me. Perhaps you have other fans who cherish your every word.
Don't get me wrong, these were big wins for NN, right in NT's back-yard. But let's leave the champagne on ice and hope NN can win some more traditional SP business.
You are wrong again, IMO. These were just teasers. The party hasn't even begun. The hors-d'ouevres haven't even been put out yet. NN has dynamite technology; the evaluation cycle is ending phase 1; we're going to see more large scale tech trials, and, I believe, we're going to see some very large scale orders from the largest global carriers. The Siemens-Newbridge alliance is, and will remain a powerhouse. What we're seeing is the transformation of NN's vision from a hazy dream to crystal clear implementation of the most robust Carrier Class Communications services available in the world.
Ian.
P.S. No, I don't have any strong feelings one way or the other.
Pat, If I'm right, post the proof. If I'm wrong, perhaps, if we all stay quiet, Peeppee will forget and go away. ;-) |
