*AV*--Gee, I wish you would have written my response. You hit the nail on the head in volumes of less pages.<GG>
KLIC-still have more to cover tomorrow, hoping for one last gasp as options come into play.
PLAB has gotten some good press but at least you were there to get something which is more than I can say.
NLVS - Give or take a few fractions we are in this boat together on the long side. I see 39 or 40 in my dreams so when it hits 38, I gotta make a decision. I can tell you now that I will take all the emotion out of it by placing a GTC on the sell so the entire transaction will be on autopilot<G>.
ASMLF-Gimme a break!! Not in my wildest nightmares did I expect it to go this low. Over the long term this is an opportunity knocking and we will look back at this much like we did on the NVLS stuff last year. If this baby gets any lower, you have to believe the big bad 500lb gorilla, AMAT is going to dig into their $1.6B (not M but B) treasure chest and "make an offer they can't refuse". An exposure tool is the one real major product line missing from their family of products. Everything else pales by comparison. This is a major piece to their mosaic puzzle. But this of course is nothing more than speculation on my part. On the scary side, you might be seeing fallout from the recent "kick butt" CANNY announcements on their steppers producuts.
With all this said, keep you finger on the trigger. If everyone is not away, we are playing with dynamite that has had its fuse lit. We are playing a dangerous game right now.
1. Options Expiry
2. Pre-releases of weaker quarters are coming out.
3. Latest rounds of earnings reported are somewhat disappointing.
4. Joe Kernan is Poo-Poo-ing the industry as well as other industry pundits and CNBC, in general.
5. The recent Book to Bill looks like a cadaver in the ER, impossible to resuscitate.
6. We are just playing ranges until the sector decides just which direction it wants to go.
7. I am and was the first to state that the recovery will not be visible until early to mid 1999. As a matter of fact, I would like to formally withdraw the late first quarter to second quarter recovery prospect and put the stake in the ground solidly in the latter part of second quarter.
8. We are flying close to the flame and eventually our wings may ignite into flames. It is whether we are carrying on board fire extinguishers that will matter. Keep close tabs on these plays and any other tech plays to minimize the downside shouid it occur.
As you will see from some of the commentaries, I am edging my way to those stocks that stand a good chance of prospering in these uncertain times.
Andrew |
