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Biotech / Medical : Zonagen (zona) - good buy?

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To: Steve Research who wrote (5309)	8/21/1998 11:56:00 AM
From: Tokyo VD	Read Replies (1) of 7041

Steve, What do you mean when you say "that drug does work" and "is almost as effective as Viagra". That is the essence of debate. Many clinicians (specifically urologists) have been disappointed with the results published at the AUA. The data from one of two Phase III studies showed that men determined to suffer from mild-to-moderate impotence who were able to achieve vaginal penetration and maintain an erection in 3 out of 4 attempts was 51% on the 40mg Vasomax in comparison to men on placebo who were successful 38%. The other study's numbers were worse at 55% on active and 48% on placebo. This data was obviously the best face Zonagen/SGP could put on for the AUA. I mean, why not examine the data with men who were successful in 4 out of 4 attempts? The specious data caused well-known urologists to openly question how Zonagen expects urologists to identify men who are only "mildly" dysfunctional prior to treatment. All in all, it was not a good showing. Therefore, Steve, I can't "give" you anything. Now, your assumption that IF Vasomax is approved by the FDA, THEN the average selling price will be the same as Viagra. This is highly unlikely. If you have followed the Viagra release (minus the hype), you will see that Viagra sells for an average wholesale price of $7. SGP/Zonagen deeply discounted Z-Max in Mexico by offering 3 pills free for everyone 1 you bought. It will be interesting to see if they employ the same strategy to capture the market share that analysts were so excited to see in the IMS data from Mexico. The topical question at that time would be who eats the cost of the "free" pills and does Zonagen get paid the same royalty for these promotions. I doubt they do, but I don't know. In sum, the answer to your question is that IF Zonagen gets approval for Vasomax, then you have to see the market size (Viagra Rxs have been falling precipitously) and the average selling price. Then you'll have your answer as to the worth of the company. Tokyo

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