Marc; you missed ''something'' along the way - like the entire ''just'' of -
my point ! I believe that this is an individual stock picking level currently. I am actively ''trading'' here - basically buying when an individual stock sell s off disproportionately to the rest of the sector as BDI, DRQ, OMNI, FGII etc. had done recently. I made a decent profit on trading FGII and spun into EVI on the big sell off they had - which I rate as THE best buy at todays prices, RIG 2nd, RON 3rd... I am holding FGII however, along with RON EVI RIG OMNI and a few others. Yes I made 3-4 buys on EVI's friday massacre - from $21 down to $18 & change... and would again. I traded in and out of FGII a few times and got out on a near top, but gladly hold FGII long... no problem ''nibbling'' as I mentioned - with 40-60% of allocated funds and then saving the remaining 40-60% for averaging down at 15-20% selloffs from there... With FGII unquestionably going to return to $24 in even the most conservative models - in the next 3-9 months (IMHO) I could care less if it bounces off $12 or even $10 - it will return me 50-67% off of owning it at $15....
I am doing some margin buying here presently on newer lows only - I don't necessarilly recommend it for others. I do not see any possible way on the leaders that we will go say 15% lower from here; just my opinion and I am buying with leverage here on selloffs... I am in the E&P sector as well - we have seen most stocks bounce from their 52 weeks lows - we are basing; I am setting ''limit'' buys to try to catch intra-day lows and I do not mind controlling 100/1000 shares on ''margin'' for 33/333 shares of ''cash''... If I can control 1000 shares of EVI for $6,000 cash (@$18) - I am entirely comfortable - it is a substantial risk of course, but right now we are NOT setting new 52 week lows - I have a little cash to keep trading and will hold a limited number of stocks - bying/trading mainly RON EVI RIG FGII here... anyone notice MRL (MDCO) holding nicely -well above its 52 week low - many, many cases here for a ''bottom''; crude has some light emerging from the tunnel and the world turmoil and DOW crash is exactly what I wanted to see --- I am a strong buyer on the big cap leaders here on any dips - and ''On Margin !'' .....a man's gotta do - what he's gotta do.... This will be a historic opportunity; mark that; just like the Bank/S&L stocks of a few years ago--- this WILL be one of "THE" great contrarion sector success stories of the decade - just wait and see... hey; if I have to take equity loans, cash advances to meet margin calls on EVI at $16-18, RON at $25-6, RIG at $26-8 etc. I have no problem waiting doing this ... I will make money here I believe in 4-6 months and without question in 9-12-18 months and it will be a 3/1 margin ratio return on stocks like EVI going from $18 to $40-50, RON going from $29 to $ 45-50 , FGII going from $12-13 to $22-8 and RIG from $29-30 to $45-50 - these are conservative numbers - if we merely recover to 85-90% of this past April/May highs let alone the OCT/NOV levels of 1997; the returns will be staggering. - for example $6,000 controls 1000 shares of EVI - if they go to $40, my $6,000 turns into $40,000 (minus 8% margin costs for 6-9-12 months on the margin balance - minor...) because of my leverage !
THis is the equivalent to starting a business and putting my ass on the line; I have ''lived'' this sector to where I am comfortable putting it on the line here; I've got a little cash to buy on dips 15-20% from here for 1 last forray - then it's ride out the storm time.... I just think we've bottomed; even if not - I'll hold EVI at $16-18 or RIG at $26-30, FGII at $13-15 for a long time while sleeping well....and yes; even on margin.
With Russia collapsing, China devaluing or not - Venezuela probably doing so... Clinton'Lewinsky - Terrorist bombings, DOW sell offs - how much more bad news & fear can be priced into these stocks - I'll take this bet and in a BIG way - right here and right now.
PS on action like FGII with Bear Stearns -- just let the volume run off and buy - it will bounce well when the Institution is done dumping... |
