Sorry to be so long replying. Truth is I spent nearly an hour going through your post, point by point, and then when I posted it, it disappeared into a cyber void.
Probably just as well as I no doubt said too much.
I do think ECI will get DT along with Orckit and Siemens. I've heard they'll get the top slot, with the others sharing the remaining. This based on an extremely low bid, so low, in fact, Alcatel dropped out.
The question looms: how long can smaller players take the losses required to seed the market?
Experience and positions in trials are all well and good, but it will eventually boil down to who has the best chips --- availability, price, and power consumption --- and who has the most muscle. I understand Fujitsu's silicon is a year off. I don't know ECI's position, but I know they're knocking on TI's door, as are Fujitsu and Orckit. Even though I have shares in Orckit, I still think the chip guys are the better plays at this stage of the game.
Having said this, I also believe the market will respond favorably to the Deutsche Telecom announcement in that it will mark the first ADSL deployment by a player of this stature. When this happens all boats will go up in tandem for a time.
All in my opinion.
Pat |
