Bobby,
I couldn't find a CRB chart back to 3/96, but the one I came up with was back to 10/97. From the 10/7/97 peak, I see a clear 5 wave decline, with wave 1 ending 1/9/98, wave 2 ending 5/5/98, wave 3 ending 6/10/98, wave 4 ending 7/7/98, and wave 5 ending 8/12/98.
Waves 3 and 5 were progressively shorter in length, so that smacks of a wedge bottom. And from the 10/97 peak, the type of top there targeted 202.08 for the bottom of the move, give or take 2%. So I feel pretty comfortable with this being the bottom for now in the CRB, especially with these low bond yields.
What commodity do you like on the long side?
Regards,
David |
