Annie,
OPMRF is a relatively small company (last year they had about 40 employees total but I suspect the number has increased) and they are not big enough to have an investor relation person. Who did you e-mail to?
As to your question about not making tryout announcement, well, they have a history of not announcing tryout installation. They think it is anti-competitive to do so and that is understandable. Several days ago they announced the Meijer deal. Well, we heard about the Meijer tryout at the Kalamazoo location 4-5 months ago through the grapevine and I asked the CEO about this and he neither confirmed or denied this citing it is against company policy and all that. If I am in his shoe, I would do the same too. Other than the obvious competitive reason, doing so can potentially mislead investors about future earning and growth and can become class-action suit materials if one is not careful. Overall, OPMRF management is very tight lipped about things. The better source of information is actually from the investment boards like this and the Yahoo board where potential installation and tryout travel through the grapevine. Remember the IBM deal, I asked them twice point blank before the announcement and they just did not comment.
My local Kroger store has a unit (with 4 machines) that I have used. When it first came out it was used by quite a bit of people. But that was 6 months ago. My impression now is it has probably reached steady state and the number of people using it will not grow further. There are just plenty of people who prefer the human touch. I talked to the human operator of this unit and she repeatedly cited the lack of use because of the human vs robot issue. Therefore, I'm pretty convinced the store will not install more unit as 4 machines could be "too much" already. Unlike paying by credit card at the gas pump where the other option is to walk inside and pay (extra distance, extra time, wait on line, in smoke-filled room etc.), the customers choice here is between choosing the robot lane or the regular lane where the tradeoff is not as obvious and negative especially during non-busy hours.
However, in stores like Meijer and Walmart I think the situation could be different as these are mega stores with at least 20 regular lanes to begin with. Kroger has but 10 lanes and even at the busiest time only 2/3 of the lanes are operational. Therefore, I think the stores like Meijer and Walmart can allow multiple installations within the same store but not stand alone grocery stores like Kroger or Albertson.
As to their stock price, it is testing some serious support here and if it does not hold, we can see $5 soon. With the general market weakness, OPMRF is not going to go anywhere. We have already seen that with its recent announcement and its stock did not move at all but down. Therefore, I think a recovery to the teens will take some time until they have clear earnings from their business that can turn them into black. 20 installation per quarter is not going to cut it.
Right now I don't think they have the capability to install 50 units (200 machines) per quarter. They need some manpower help real bad and soon and they need to commit money to build up a team of competent people to support this business at steady state. My opinion is they are struggling right now to strike a balance in staffing. Their business plan has always been sound but right now they are in need of a good execution plan to really make things happen. A smooth execution needs seasoned, experienced people which unfortunately they don't have. Further, this is such a new business even experienced people will have pretty steep learning curve. Therefore, one should not expect them to turn earning positive anytime soon. The best case scenario is for a buyout to occur. |
