As one who has endured several recent breakdowns in high-flying techstocks, I want to point CIEN followers to the threads of several similar stocks that broke this same way: ASND, ORCL, TDFX, QCOM.
The basic story is the same:
1) mid-cap company reports a hiccup (product transition, Korean exposure, Asian weakness, aggresive competition, etc.)
2) Management assures investors "Fundamentals are intact"
3) Momentum players exit swiftly
4) Short sellers circle
5) Stock establishes new trading range significantly below former highs
6) Depending on calendar, possible tax loss selling
7) Both bull and bear get a chance to make money
8) Stock may recover (ASND), languish (ORCL) or TBA (QCOM, TDFX)
The point here is these types of things are usually controlled by emotional traders. Rational investors' tools simply do not apply. You can not be assured of a V bounce. It is not a gimme.
I mention this because one of the points of SI is to share experience and knowledge. We will see the exact same types of post on CIEN/TLAB as we've seen on ASND/ORCL/QCOM. You might as well go read them today as watch them trickle in over the next period.
Myself, I am a long-term investor and will take an initial position in CIEN. Money that previously was going to AMAT/KLAC is now going to CIEN. I'm sure I will not catch the bottom, but I'm going to average in. If we break our intraday low, then I'm in again at 22.
While I am a long term investor, I will also unload this one at 55 if we pop through there within this year. I don't really want to own TLAB but I'll take CSCO.
Good luck everyone,
Matt |
