I remember BORL at 50 a share. What happened?
Do you really think that the market position of ORCL in '91 equates to BORL in '96? ORCL was the largest company in a mission-critical application area, with over 50% market share. The switching cost was high (changing from product to another, for a customer). ORCL was massively growing, I think in '91 either a billion company, or almost one. Revenue was growing like crazy.
BORL has a small fraction of the overall tools market share (in fact, that's the damn problem guys!!! it's too fragmented, no one, not even MSFT, gets 15%, let alone 25%). They are shrinking - about 40% less revenue this year than last year. The cost of picking one development tool over another is too low/easy.
There is no comparison between BORL today and ORCL - they are completely differently situated. If you think BORL is like ORCL, well, I don't think you know very much about the software market.
Also - this $2 in cash everyone keeps talking about - it won't be that much after this miserable quarter. Maybe 1/2 that. |