GV - Thanks for Your Kurlak Data - It VERIFIES MY ASSERTION
Look at Kurlak's calls - and his REVERSALS:
29 Jun 94 lowered to 3-1 14.9375 446.05
21 Dec 94 raised to 1-1 15.375 457.24
Net result - Intel ROSE $0.40 and Kurlak had to REVERSE HIMSELF
WRONG CALL TO LOWER
19 Jul 95 lowered to 2-1 32.5 556.58
6 Oct 95 raised to 1-1 31.5625 582.63
Net result - Intel dropped only $1 - Brokerage expenses would eat up most of the sell and re-purchase of Intel.
7 Nov 95 lowered to 3-1 34.4375 588.46
31 May 96 raised to 1-1 36.9375 671.70
Net Result - WRONG CALL - Intel INCREASED $2.50 per share
22 Aug 97 lowered to 3-1 92.25 925.05
One good Call
15 Apr 98 lowered to 3-2 78.1875 1115.75
20 Aug 98 lowered to 3-3 87 1098.06
Kurlak BLEW IT - WRONG CALL - Sellers would have lost $9 in the Intel run up following his advice.
From your SELECT data, Kurlak provided one good call and three BAD ones - based on the subsequent response in Intel's stock AFTER the Kurlak call.
Why didn't you include this following call, GV ? You seem to focus only on "select" calls that you think will support your argument? This time, Kurlak issued a BULL analysis on Intel, May 7, 1997, just 2 weeks before Intel issued an earnings warning - and the stock dropped $10 to $15 in one day.
What do the Kurlak reports contain that you didn't publish?
{==============================}
Tech Stocks Rise on Boost From Merrill Lynch
(5/7)
By MARGARET D. WILLIAMS
c.1997 Bloomberg News
EW YORK -- Technology stocks rose Wednesday after
several Merrill Lynch analysts said demand for
semiconductors, computers and software remains strong.
''The Merrill technology team came out positive this morning
and it looks like it's lifted the stocks,'' said Mike Driscoll,
senior block trader at Hambrecht & Quist. Shares of Compaq
Computer Corp. rose 2 1/4 to 92 1/4; Texas Instruments Inc.
rose 1 7/8 to 93 7/8; Motorola Inc. rose 3/8 to 61 3/8; and Dell
Computer Inc. rose 1 5/8 to 91 7/8.
The Merrill Lynch technology analysts and chief investment
strategist spoke to institutional investors on a conference call
earlier Wednesday.
Analyst Tom Kurlak told clients that Intel Corp., which was up
2 to 160 earlier, will benefit from a shift to production of more
MMX products, which are the new chips that include
multimedia features.
''They are ahead of schedule,'' Kurlak said, adding that he
expects 75 percent of the chipmaker's production to be MMX
chips by the end of June.
''He thinks they are setting up for a huge second half,'' said
Peter Williams of L.B. Burtschy & Co., who was on the call.
Kurlak also said the reported flaw in the Pentium II and
Pentium Pro chips probably will have a software fix soon and
won't hurt sales.
Kurlak also recommended the stocks of U.S. memory chip
makers Micron Technology Inc. and Texas Instruments. He
said Micron is boosting its production of chips and that prices
for memory chips are stabilizing.
''Demand for memory is very strong,'' Kurlak said.
Merrill analyst Lucianne Painter said on the call that personal
computer makers will benefit from a strong corporate
upgrade cycle with new Intel chips and Microsoft Corp.
software.
She said direct vendors will do especially well, and that
Compaq's stock is the best value in the group.
(The Bloomberg web site is at bloomberg.com )
NYT-05-07-97 1818EDT<
{=====================================}
The net result is that Kurlak is no better than flipping a coin - listening to him would result in extreme jeopardy. Nearly every downgrade has been followed by an UPGRADE - indicating his PRIOR DOWNGRADE WAS WRONG !
Tax consequences of selling on his calls, paying brokerage fees and short term capital gains tax will eat up ANY MINOR SHORT TERM SAVINGS
and this would be followwed by "PAPER LOSSES" as Intel's stock increased in value BEFORE Kurlak recommended buying it again.
If someone had SOLD Intel in June 1994, on Kurlak's advice, for $14+, they would have missed out on a 600% GAIN in Intel to $84+ today, not to mention what they would have lost in tax consequences. I'll bet those folks just love old Tommy the ex-banker.
Listening to Kurlak is a fool's game. Kurlak is no more than a numbers analyzer, sitting in an over stuffed Wall STreet office. His only contribution is to try to generate trading profits for Merrill Lynch by his rapid downgrade/upgrade cycles of Intel. He clearly cannot focus out beyond a 6 month window because he nearly always REVERSES HIS INTEL CALLS within 6 months.
Intel is a national treasure - providing 60,000+ jobs - creating wealth, improving the quality of life in the world through its designs and manufacturing of the best CPUs and support circuits in the world.
In 10 years, Kurlak will have been replaced by 2 or 3 other analysts, and no one will remember him for anything other than leaching off the backs of real producers in America.
In 10 years, Intel will more than likely be bigger, stronger and vastly more successful than today - as will its shareholders.
Paul |
