Richard,
Your prescription, that I endorse for a portion of one's portfolio, is not a momentum play. Obviously many of us have lost twice on biotechs, one the drop in value, and two by being out of the market where the gains have taken place. I have started repositioning a portion to OSIP BTRN and SIBI, primarily to spread the risk/opportunity. However, I am not above a momentum play, or shorting stocks that are going to come down.
Haveing said that, I am interested in the stuff that is hard to pull from a 10-Q or K. I can see the cash, evaluate the financial position and burn rate. The harder part is to understand the science, the pipeline, the likely or projected timing of major events, and...the estimated likelihood of success. I invest in biotechs because I believe that we are in a fundamental scientific revolution that will rapidly reshape the healthcare/pharmaceutical industry.
I am now diversifying my biotech exposure because the risk is one of science, leadership and financial acumen. It is not easy to finance as startup and create a success before the well runs dry. A company like Seragen won the battle(at least Ontak is highly likely to be approved) and lost the war.
I am watching AGPH closely for a potential bounce. I would expect LGND(yes I am very concerned about its potential dilution) and ISIP to bounce if there is a September rally. Some of the February option plays are dirt cheap.
J.D. |
