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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)

AMZN 232.08

-0.2%

Dec 29 3:59 PM EST

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To: llamaphlegm who wrote (14354)	8/22/1998 4:35:00 PM
From: Bill Harmond	Read Replies (1) of 164684

Drill down deeper. Of course Internet portal user growth is slowing some. It has to. What that article failed to mention(to their discredit in my opinion, because they should know better) that inevitable slowing user growth rates don't spell slowing revenue growth rates. Yahoo's advertising sell-out rate is currently only 15-17%. The US TV-viewer growth rate peaked way back around 1959, when most households finally had sets (today's Internet stats are obviously nowhere near this level yet). The rates of growth in hours viewed didn't peak then, and revenue growth didn't peak until twenty years later, in 1979. Selling your CBS stock in 1959 based on a flattening of viewer growth would have been a disasterous miscalculation. Internet commerce is coming behind the growth in the portals. Compare Amazon's 3 million customers to Yahoo's 33 million regular users. A flattening of Yahoo's user-growth curve doesn't mean anything to Amazon's prospects.

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