Oscar,
I see that you are spreading your opinion on GTSG on this forum as well. So for the sake of balance (and the benefit of the other readers of this forum), I reproduce my reply to you from the GTSG board
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Glad to see that there you are a follower of GTSG, but I disagree with you. I think the story, currently, is the other way around. The stock has benefited from the market's love affair with telecoms such as QWEST, WCOM and others, that are laying the infrastructure to be the carriers of the future. The European network is not a story of
tomorrow' it is happening as we speak (they have laid out some 18,000 miles of fiber). True, it will not be profitable until 2001 (I take your world for), but the real question is when will it be EBTDA cashflow positive. I do not know the answer, but I think much earlier than 2001.
The Russian and sub-Russian part, on the other hand, is a nice to have but its development will take many years to implement. In the meantime, it is nice to have the cashflow from them.
As to the comparison with PLDI, VIP and ROS, I think your comparison misses the point above and, as a result, compares a mainly European story (and therefore much less risky), with an emerging market (pure Russian plays) one which, inherently is much riskier. Most of Russia and associated Russian plays are (or soon will be) starving for cash. GTSG, on the other hand, took advantage of the markets over the past 6 months and raised a lot of money. I would
venture that they have more than enough money to finish the HERMES network and even retire (if needed) some of the initial (and expensive) financings.
My 5 cents...Tavros |
