SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Technology Stocks : Stock Swap
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  
To: Andrew Vance who wrote (15349)8/22/1998 6:15:00 PM
From: Kachina  Read Replies (1) of 17305
 
Andrew -
I am thinking about some other aspects of the electronics equipment biz. A buddy of mine used to work for AMAT.
What I am thinking about is this:
All the players are getting squeezed up against the wall of submicron etching processes. There is work being done. But only Toshiba has come out with something at all promising. And they are tight lipped about how.
Related to this are items like the IBM SOI process improvements.
It is all about the fundamental game, packing density, lowering power req's, and resultant speed.

The FABs are quaking because they are looking at multi-billion (like $10 billion) refits of process equipment. And - this technology is not 100% worked out yet.

This horizon is within 5 years, and for the equipment maker who can supply something that works first, will come the golden laurel wreath.
One way to look at this is to think, "OK. So the big boys will have the money to build this stuff." But another is that maybe the big boys will get chewed up by an upstart. But then the industry is pretty mature - look at the capitalization requirements for a company like AMAT. It's pretty incredible stuff. So maybe any process will just get licensed to the big boys.
My buddy was working on the process equip for the big wafers.

Any thoughts?

I know this is farther out than matters for these stocks right now. But it is an aspect of the recovery picture also. I think we could see USA and Europe firms putting in new plants in the depressed Asian sector just because the talent is there, and these new Fabs are so goddamed expensive. But most of that cost is equipment from the West. So maybe not. But even if they were, the profits would go to USA companies? Hmmm. Dunno.

Thoughts about that also? As you can see I am tying myself up in mental knots trying to figure out where this one will go in the long horizon.
Report TOU ViolationShare This Post
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  

HomeMailHotSubjectMarksPeopleMarksKeepersSettings
Terms Of UseContact UsCopyright/IP PolicyPrivacy PolicyAbout UsFAQAdvertise on SI
© 2025 Knight Sac Media.  Data provided by Twelve Data, Alpha Vantage, and CityFALCON News