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Strategies & Market Trends : Asia Forum

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To: Logos who wrote (5765)8/22/1998 7:25:00 PM
From: Stitch  Read Replies (2) of 9980
 
Logos,

<<Somebody please tell me I'm wrong about this, because if I'm right, then it means the Asian governments have learned nothing and this mess will keep on rolling.>>

This mess will not just keep on rolling. It will get worse. There is a sharp division brewing between east and west. I think it will broaden to include "have" and "have not" as financial chaos embraces the world's emerging markets. The IMF and the world bank are helpless. And the G-7 is in chaos with members squabbling. There is no leadership. Instead of the U.S. taking advantage of the cold war victory we are fumbling the ball in follow up execution. We are frozen by a presidential scandal of the worse kind, with a general sense that things are out of our control. We seem more preoccupied with presidential sexual practices then wide spread economic dislocation. Instead of being here with money, guidance, and sympathy we send criticism, hedge fund attacks, and now missles. Our "me first" generation is reaping the spols of its own brand of hubris.

Of course there is much about Mahatir (and all the leaders) to criticize. Of course the Asian embrace of capitalism has been faulty. But it is the wrong time to celebrate victory because there is none.

I would be concerned with strong nationalist backlashes.

To quote Richard Medley of Medley Global Advisors, a New
York-based firm that provides political and economic advice to hedge funds and investment banks from a recent article published by The Street.com:

"So, the shaky governments across the developing markets will have to forge their own way through this crisis. It is unlikely to result in capitalist orthodoxy, and we will look back at this moment as a massive missed opportunity."

Best,
Stitch

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