David,
Here's my latest update on TSO, which is looking at about the same time frame you are.
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INDEX UPDATE
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Extensively rechecked my technicals and I have notice the probability is actually high that the following next 2 days could be up, but up only slightly on a intraday basis. Around the 2nd to third day it begins to fall again. Whether it will drop hard after the 3rd day is another question and not part of this specific analysis.
What I was searching for, was to see what is the normal pattern after a day where there was a strong intraday rebound took place. In my research I did not look for price movement in the normal charts, but I looked for similar patterns in the movement of my technicals - such researched pointed me to DEC 19 and MAY 27. Please keep in mind that my reseach parameters were set for a 1-5 day period, since I realise that about 2 weeks afer May 27 the market took off to the upside. This specific analysis is very confined to only a 5 day period and should not be use as a indication of what may happen to happen after 5 days.
On both DEC 19 and MAY 27, there was a strong intraday rebound and within the next 2 days the market was slight up on a intraday basis, then the dipping process resumed.
If one believes that there will be a strong pullback, then this analysis is implying we the next 2 days may be the short-term interim top. This analysis is not saying that we cannot move higher before a bigger drop.
All my technicals are indicating if there is to be another strong drop, without an immediate rebound, such should occur within the next 2 weeks, latest SEPT 4. I think it would be safe to open a 50% position tomorrow or TUE.
Here is my timeframe analysis:
1) market to be flat to slightly up over the next 2-3 days(AUG 24-26)
2) market to start to head down again by WED/THUR (AUG 26-27), with a possibility that a strong spike down could occur THUR or FRI.
3a) if there is a strong spike down this THU/FRI then early the following week there will be a small upswing or flatness, and then around SEPT 3(THU), acceleration to the downside could begin.
3b) if there is no strong down spike this THU/FRI, we will have a short period of slight down or flatness leading into SEPT 3 with acceleration to the downside to begin.
The key is whether we break the 8317 support convincingly on a intraday basis, say 50 points (around 8267). I think this is basicly how Jerry Favors is getting his 8263 figure). If we break this support by THUR, it looks very likely that we will break the 8000 support by the 2nd week of SEPT, and all bets are off. If we do not break the 8300 range support by the second week of SEPT then there is still a chance, although slim, that the 8300 support area could hold.
SIMPLY PUT - IT DOES NOT LOOK GOOD.
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Also we have 8600 range as the high of the STAIR-STEP.
This also falls in line that the HAMMER that people are noticing is actually a HANGING MAN = BEARISH
SEEYA
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